An interactive atlas · 157 countries · to 2060
How could AGI change national growth — and when?
The Industrial Revolution made some countries forty times richer while others remained behind for a century. This atlas examines how another change in the growth regime could unfold if artificial general intelligence — AI able to perform any job done at a computer — arrives in the next fifteen years. The exercise is a scenario to think with, not a forecast. It models how 157 countries could fare to 2060 and tests the proposition that power, capital and the capacity to build may matter more than where frontier AI is developed.
How to read this atlas
Choose a scenario
Economists disagree about the scale of AI’s economic effects. The atlas represents that disagreement with three scenarios: Modest, Gradual and Fast. AGI means AI able to perform any job that can be done remotely. It arrives around 2030 under Fast and around 2040 under Gradual. Changing the scenario recalculates every result on the site.
Follow the complementary inputs
AI supplies intelligence. Explosive growth also requires electricity, chips, capital, skilled builders and permission to build. The input that scales most slowly limits a country’s growth, while scarce inputs capture more of the return. The atlas scores nine such factors from 1 to 5 using public data.
Compare modeled outcomes
The map, rankings and country profiles show modeled growth to 2060 under the selected scenario. Under Fast, some countries grow more slowly than they would without AGI. Country pages also show how sector composition and work organization affect the channels through which AI may reach the economy.
Choose a lens
Choose one of three scenarios
The atlas assigns no probability to any scenario. Select Modest, Gradual or Fast to recalculate every map, ranking and chart using that set of assumptions.
AI as a normal productivity tool
Intelligence is not the binding constraint on growth in this scenario, so AI produces meaningful but conventional gains. Each country receives a one-time increase of a few percent of GDP, phased in through 2035, after which growth returns to trend. This (still) represents the mainstream economic view.
Broad automation and transformative growth
Broad automation of remote work arrives around 2040, with gains building slowly from 2025. Annual growth reaches about 15% in the best-positioned countries, roughly seven times the current frontier trend and in line with the central forecasts of AI insiders. The longer transition gives countries time to adapt, producing widely shared but uneven gains.
Fast takeoff; current infrastructure determines the initial position
Broad transformation arrives around 2030, before countries have much time to adjust. Countries that already possess compute, capital and construction capacity receive the largest gains. Differences in national growth widen substantially, and some countries grow more slowly than they would without AGI.
Which world are we in? · readings as of 1 October 2026
Which world we are in is an empirical question, and the page tracks the signals that would answer it. Gradual and Modest look alike until about 2030, and a fast takeoff would show in growth only from 2027–28, so the answer comes first from leading indicators. Each tile shows a tell’s latest reading, its trend, and the world it is most consistent with so far.
3 of 5 read Fast so far; 2 of 5 fit all three, including growth in the most-ready economies, the tell that decides. “So far” means the indicator is doing what that world needs it to do at this point; the leading indicators run ahead of the economic ones by construction, and the atlas attaches no probability to any scenario.
What it means for different kinds of countries
The United States, Germany and Nigeria under the Gradual lens — dashed lines show each country’s no-AI path; hover for values, and switch the lens above to compare.
The chart runs to 2060. On the logarithmic view, constant growth appears as a straight line and the change at the AGI year is easier to see. These are transitional scenario paths rather than steady-state forecasts: the model holds post-AGI growth constant through 2060, and does not make catch-up fade near the frontier, require continuing innovation to sustain frontier growth, or impose global energy and resource limits after repeated doublings. Compare the timing and divergence of the paths rather than taking the 2060 levels literally. Growth figures elsewhere on the site are each scenario’s post-AGI rate (for Modest, its 2035 peak) unless a year is shown; the “Growth as of” control in the lens bar switches to one calendar year so the scenarios can be compared at the same date.
Before the numbers
About this project
The AGI Growth Atlas is built by Rasmus Fonnesbæk Andersen, Ph.D. — a political scientist and development economist who has advised governments and organizations on technology, growth and public policy in more than 40 countries. The project grew out of his work on the implications of continued AI capability growth for jobs and economic development, with particular attention to Africa and other low- and middle-income countries. It has been built in collaboration with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, since the first version. The atlas remains a work in progress: the first version was published in November 2025, the second in July 2026 and the third in September 2026. Its scores, sources and model will continue to be updated; corrections and suggestions are welcome: email · LinkedIn.