LensGradual: Broad automation and transformative growth · AGI ~2040
Growth as of
Countries · Gradual lens
All 157, ranked and searchable
Sort, filter or search the full set under the Gradual lens. Click any country for its full profile.
Where each country sits in the AI economy
If AI changes the growth regime, as the Gradual and Fast lenses assume, most of the value from that growth will be captured along the global AI supply chain: by the countries that build the models and chips, host and power the compute, supply its materials, adopt it fastest, or anchor it in their region. How a country is positioned in that chain will shape how much of the gain it keeps.
The first tier sorts the countries that hold a position in the chain; the second sorts the rest by how AI reaches them. Click a type for what defines it and to filter the table to its members; click it again to clear.
Tier 1Positions in the AI supply chain
They build the chain, gate it, host it, supply it, absorb it fastest, or anchor it in their region.
Tier 2How AI reaches everyone else
Countries without a strong position in the chain, sorted by how AI reaches them: through offshored work, tourism and diaspora earnings, smallholder farms or adoption at home. Last come the states where fragility comes first.
Most analysis of AI and geopolitics concentrates on the first tier: the AI superpowers and the middle powers that hold chokepoints or can bargain for access, as in Leicht and Ball’s The Race Worth Winning and Chatham House’s How middle powers can weather US and Chinese AI dominance. The second tier covers the countries that analysis mostly leaves out. Rules and sources are in the .
157 countries
Country
Archetype
Index ▾
Post-AGI
Growth 2035
×2045
Avg 25–45
GDP
Per cap.
Compute
Geopolitics
Diffusion
Language
Build
Catch-up
Demographics
Cyber
Climate
United States
79.8
14.9%
6.1%
×2.9
8.1%
$30.8T
$90,027
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
3.7
1.2
3.4
4.8
3.0
Canada
77.9
14.2%
5.6%
×2.9
7.5%
$2.3T
$55,698
3.1
4.0
4.6
4.9
4.0
1.8
4.3
4.6
4.9
China
76.2
13.9%
8.1%
×2.0
9.4%
$19.5T
$13,862
3.9
4.5
4.5
4.0
5.0
3.1
1.9
3.3
3.4
United Kingdom
74.3
12.8%
4.8%
×2.7
6.6%
$4.0T
$57,602
3.4
4.0
4.9
4.9
2.8
1.8
3.3
4.6
4.4
Australia
73.1
12.5%
5.3%
×2.4
6.9%
$1.8T
$65,130
2.8
4.0
4.8
4.9
4.2
1.7
4.3
4.4
2.3
Ireland
72.5
12.8%
6.8%
×2.1
8.2%
$722bn
$131,592
2.9
4.0
4.6
4.9
3.5
1.1
4.1
3.7
4.6
New Zealand
72.5
12.3%
5.2%
×2.4
6.8%
$264bn
$49,591
2.0
4.0
4.3
4.9
4.1
2.4
3.9
3.3
4.6
South Korea
71.7
12.1%
5.2%
×2.4
6.8%
$1.9T
$36,227
3.2
4.5
5.0
3.0
4.8
1.8
2.0
4.5
3.0
Singapore
71.2
12.2%
6.1%
×2.1
7.5%
$604bn
$98,814
3.2
3.5
4.6
4.7
3.7
1.1
4.7
4.9
2.4
Sweden
71.1
11.6%
4.5%
×2.4
6.1%
$669bn
$63,133
2.5
4.0
4.8
3.9
4.3
1.6
2.3
4.2
4.9
Malaysia
71.1
12.3%
6.5%
×2.0
7.8%
$472bn
$13,125
3.1
2.0
4.5
3.5
4.0
2.7
4.8
4.0
2.9
Japan
70.8
11.3%
3.7%
×2.6
5.4%
$4.4T
$35,951
3.5
4.5
4.4
3.5
4.7
2.4
1.1
4.2
3.5
Netherlands
70.3
11.5%
4.7%
×2.3
6.3%
$1.3T
$73,684
2.7
4.5
4.9
4.4
3.2
1.4
2.5
4.6
4.2
Germany
70.3
11.2%
3.9%
×2.5
5.5%
$5.1T
$60,496
3.5
4.0
4.8
4.7
3.5
1.6
1.4
4.8
4.0
Norway
69.8
11.2%
4.4%
×2.3
6%
$531bn
$94,594
2.5
4.0
4.7
3.6
3.9
1.2
3.0
4.1
4.9
Switzerland
69.8
11.3%
4.7%
×2.3
6.2%
$1.0T
$114,769
2.9
3.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
1.4
2.0
4.0
4.8
Finland
69.5
10.9%
3.9%
×2.4
5.5%
$317bn
$56,149
2.6
4.0
4.5
3.6
4.1
1.9
1.7
5.0
4.8
France
68.7
10.7%
4%
×2.3
5.5%
$3.4T
$48,986
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.9
3.9
1.7
1.7
4.8
3.7
Chile
68.6
10.9%
4.7%
×2.2
6.1%
$357bn
$17,995
2.0
2.0
4.1
4.2
4.6
2.9
3.5
3.5
4.6
United Arab Emirates
68.4
10.9%
4.7%
×2.2
6.1%
$552bn
$50,274
3.4
3.0
4.9
2.3
4.2
1.3
5.0
4.4
1.0
India
68.3
11.8%
7.6%
×1.66
8.6%
$4.0T
$2,702
3.4
3.0
3.2
1.4
5.0
4.4
4.2
3.6
1.3
Denmark
67.3
10.5%
4.7%
×2.1
6%
$463bn
$76,970
2.0
4.0
4.8
3.7
3.9
1.5
2.0
4.9
4.4
Iceland
67.3
10.7%
5.1%
×1.99
6.4%
$39bn
$98,323
1.9
3.5
4.4
2.6
3.2
1.5
4.4
4.3
5.0
Belgium
66.6
10%
4.1%
×2.1
5.4%
$725bn
$60,750
2.1
4.0
4.7
4.4
4.1
1.5
1.8
4.7
3.7
Morocco
66.5
10.4%
4.9%
×1.98
6.2%
$182bn
$4,672
1.5
3.5
3.9
3.0
4.7
4.2
3.4
3.6
1.9
Austria
66.2
9.8%
3.7%
×2.1
5.1%
$579bn
$62,930
2.0
3.5
4.5
4.7
4.3
1.5
1.8
4.1
4.5
Taiwan
65.5
10.6%
6%
×1.77
7%
$920bn
$39,489
2.8
4.0
4.7
4.0
3.6
1.3
1.7
3.8
3.7
Saudi Arabia
65.2
10.1%
5.1%
×1.86
6.2%
$1.3T
$34,537
2.8
3.0
4.6
1.5
4.7
1.4
4.9
3.9
1.1
Israel
64.9
10.3%
5.6%
×1.79
6.7%
$611bn
$60,337
2.7
2.9
4.3
1.8
4.3
2.2
4.3
3.9
1.7
Turkey
64.9
10.7%
6.5%
×1.68
7.5%
$1.6T
$18,599
1.7
3.5
4.3
2.6
4.8
1.9
3.9
4.1
2.4
Vietnam
64.6
10.8%
7.6%
×1.48
8.3%
$515bn
$5,066
1.7
2.0
3.5
3.3
4.9
3.5
4.4
4.4
2.0
Spain
64.4
9.5%
4.3%
×1.92
5.5%
$1.9T
$38,627
2.8
4.0
4.7
4.2
3.3
1.8
1.5
4.8
2.3
Poland
64.0
10%
5.5%
×1.75
6.5%
$1.0T
$28,420
2.5
3.5
4.2
4.4
3.2
2.0
1.5
4.5
4.1
Philippines
63.9
10.4%
6.3%
×1.65
7.3%
$487bn
$4,171
1.7
3.5
2.9
3.1
4.5
4.1
4.4
2.8
1.9
Brazil
63.9
9.1%
3.8%
×1.96
5%
$2.3T
$10,713
2.9
3.5
3.9
3.2
3.5
2.9
2.4
3.6
2.6
Italy
63.5
8.7%
3.4%
×1.97
4.6%
$2.6T
$43,309
2.9
4.0
4.1
3.6
3.8
1.7
1.1
4.9
3.3
Indonesia
63.4
10.1%
5.9%
×1.67
6.9%
$1.4T
$5,060
2.7
2.0
3.0
2.1
4.9
3.7
4.1
3.4
2.2
Colombia
63.1
9.2%
4.5%
×1.80
5.6%
$457bn
$8,562
1.7
3.5
3.1
3.8
3.6
3.0
4.6
2.6
3.1
Qatar
62.8
8.6%
3.5%
×1.91
4.6%
$216bn
$72,525
2.4
3.5
4.2
2.3
4.8
1.0
4.9
3.1
1.1
Luxembourg
62.7
8.7%
3.8%
×1.86
4.9%
$101bn
$147,252
1.7
3.5
4.2
4.6
1.1
1.2
4.6
4.2
4.7
Peru
62.1
8.9%
4.4%
×1.76
5.4%
$335bn
$9,684
1.2
2.0
2.9
4.2
4.2
3.2
4.6
3.0
4.0
Czech Republic
61.7
8.5%
3.9%
×1.78
5%
$391bn
$35,917
1.2
3.5
4.0
3.9
4.5
1.9
1.6
4.5
4.2
Jordan
61.6
8.6%
4.1%
×1.76
5.1%
$62bn
$5,348
1.1
3.5
4.1
1.5
2.4
3.9
4.8
4.2
1.6
Argentina
61.4
7.6%
2.5%
×1.91
3.7%
$683bn
$14,898
1.6
3.5
3.8
4.6
3.0
2.6
3.5
2.6
2.9
Hungary
61.3
8.7%
4.3%
×1.73
5.3%
$246bn
$25,907
1.1
3.5
4.2
3.5
4.5
2.0
1.6
4.4
3.9
Romania
60.8
8.8%
4.7%
×1.67
5.7%
$429bn
$22,538
1.7
3.5
3.7
3.7
4.5
2.0
1.2
4.3
4.1
Estonia
60.7
8.1%
3.7%
×1.75
4.7%
$47bn
$34,418
1.5
3.5
4.1
2.5
3.1
2.5
1.4
4.9
4.7
Ecuador
60.6
8%
3.5%
×1.77
4.5%
$130bn
$7,125
1.2
2.0
3.1
3.8
3.4
3.4
4.6
2.6
3.9
Mexico
60.2
7.6%
3.1%
×1.77
4.1%
$1.8T
$13,889
2.5
2.0
3.2
3.2
4.2
2.6
4.5
2.9
1.8
Portugal
59.7
8%
4%
×1.66
4.9%
$347bn
$32,082
1.7
3.5
3.9
4.5
3.4
2.2
1.4
4.7
3.1
Thailand
59.5
7.8%
3.7%
×1.67
4.7%
$577bn
$8,057
2.2
3.5
4.0
1.3
4.4
3.0
1.9
4.2
1.4
Bahrain
58.3
7.9%
4.3%
×1.57
5.1%
$49bn
$30,597
2.0
3.5
3.6
2.3
3.8
1.3
4.9
3.5
1.2
South Africa
58.2
6.6%
2.4%
×1.70
3.4%
$427bn
$6,598
2.6
2.0
3.4
3.4
1.7
3.6
4.1
3.0
2.0
Slovakia
58.1
7.4%
3.6%
×1.62
4.5%
$155bn
$28,544
1.1
3.5
3.7
3.7
2.9
2.2
1.6
4.5
4.7
Hong Kong
57.6
6.8%
2.9%
×1.64
3.8%
$427bn
$56,983
2.9
1.0
4.4
4.1
2.5
1.4
1.7
5.0
3.6
Dominican Republic
57.6
8.6%
5.6%
×1.46
6.3%
$127bn
$11,059
1.1
2.0
3.9
4.2
4.6
2.5
2.9
2.9
2.1
Russia
57.2
7%
3.4%
×1.58
4.2%
$2.6T
$17,547
1.4
1.0
4.2
4.5
4.0
1.3
1.9
3.8
4.8
Kenya
57.0
8.6%
5.8%
×1.42
6.4%
$136bn
$2,363
1.7
3.5
2.6
2.0
2.8
4.5
3.9
3.0
1.5
Latvia
56.9
6.8%
3.2%
×1.58
4%
$49bn
$26,312
1.1
3.5
3.8
2.5
3.1
2.3
1.2
4.0
5.0
Oman
56.7
6.8%
3.3%
×1.56
4.1%
$110bn
$19,947
1.5
2.0
3.8
1.5
4.3
2.3
5.0
3.0
1.0
Slovenia
56.6
7.4%
4.2%
×1.50
4.9%
$80bn
$37,376
1.1
3.5
4.0
3.4
2.5
1.9
1.5
4.6
4.4
Uzbekistan
56.5
8.7%
6.9%
×1.25
7.3%
$147bn
$3,968
1.1
2.0
2.9
1.7
4.8
3.6
4.4
2.9
1.7
Croatia
56.4
7.8%
4.8%
×1.46
5.5%
$105bn
$27,104
1.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.8
2.0
1.2
3.8
4.3
Lithuania
56.2
7.5%
4.5%
×1.46
5.2%
$95bn
$32,959
1.1
3.5
3.6
1.8
3.4
2.1
1.3
4.7
4.9
Cabo Verde
56.2
8%
5.2%
×1.42
5.8%
$3.1bn
$5,796
1.0
2.0
2.2
4.0
2.7
4.3
4.7
2.4
3.2
Bangladesh
56.1
8.6%
6.8%
×1.25
7.2%
$456bn
$2,597
1.2
2.0
2.6
1.6
4.9
3.8
3.8
3.4
2.1
Kazakhstan
56.1
7.7%
4.7%
×1.45
5.4%
$306bn
$14,692
1.5
2.0
3.5
2.1
4.4
1.8
3.3
3.9
3.1
Egypt
55.6
8.1%
5.4%
×1.39
6%
$365bn
$3,086
1.6
3.5
3.4
2.3
2.5
3.1
3.6
3.4
1.4
Panama
55.0
7.8%
5.2%
×1.38
5.8%
$90bn
$19,790
1.1
2.0
2.4
3.8
4.6
2.1
3.7
2.8
3.9
Kyrgyzstan
54.4
8.2%
6.4%
×1.25
6.8%
$23bn
$3,081
1.0
2.0
2.9
1.8
2.6
3.7
3.8
2.7
4.0
Nepal
54.3
7.7%
5.2%
×1.36
5.8%
$45bn
$1,536
1.1
2.0
2.3
1.4
3.7
4.1
3.9
2.6
3.4
Serbia
54.2
7.1%
4.5%
×1.39
5.1%
$100bn
$15,262
1.1
2.0
3.6
3.3
3.8
2.4
1.2
4.1
4.0
Bolivia
54.1
5.7%
2.7%
×1.47
3.4%
$65bn
$5,148
1.0
2.0
2.4
4.2
2.2
3.4
4.7
1.8
3.7
DR Congo
53.7
7.9%
5.7%
×1.31
6.2%
$91bn
$807
1.1
1.0
2.1
2.7
4.6
4.7
2.9
1.6
3.6
Uruguay
53.6
5.5%
2.5%
×1.46
3.2%
$85bn
$25,216
1.0
2.0
3.8
4.2
2.4
2.8
1.8
3.7
3.4
Tanzania
53.6
8%
6%
×1.28
6.5%
$90bn
$1,319
1.2
2.0
1.7
1.2
4.7
4.6
3.3
3.3
2.7
Honduras
53.5
6.9%
4.4%
×1.36
5%
$40bn
$3,598
1.0
2.0
1.8
4.6
2.9
4.1
4.5
1.4
3.0
Bahamas
53.5
6%
3.3%
×1.42
3.9%
$16bn
$39,455
1.0
2.0
3.3
4.9
1.9
2.5
3.8
2.4
3.3
Senegal
53.4
8%
6.2%
×1.25
6.6%
$37bn
$1,955
1.0
2.0
2.7
2.7
3.9
4.9
3.2
2.0
1.1
Mongolia
53.2
7.4%
5.1%
×1.32
5.7%
$25bn
$7,108
1.0
2.0
2.6
1.2
3.3
2.9
4.0
2.5
4.6
Albania
53.1
6.9%
4.5%
×1.35
5.1%
$31bn
$12,998
1.1
3.5
2.8
2.1
3.1
3.1
1.3
3.8
4.2
Cyprus
53.1
7.9%
6.1%
×1.25
6.5%
$41bn
$41,783
1.0
3.5
3.4
2.5
1.6
1.6
4.6
4.7
2.2
Paraguay
53.0
6.6%
4.2%
×1.35
4.8%
$49bn
$7,027
1.1
2.0
2.5
4.2
3.2
3.0
4.0
2.7
2.4
Costa Rica
52.9
7%
4.7%
×1.34
5.2%
$103bn
$19,970
1.1
2.0
3.2
4.2
2.0
2.7
3.6
2.7
3.2
Kuwait
52.7
4.7%
1.8%
×1.45
2.5%
$157bn
$32,312
1.6
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.2
1.6
4.8
2.2
1.1
Greece
52.6
5.4%
2.8%
×1.39
3.4%
$281bn
$26,948
1.8
3.5
3.8
3.3
1.5
2.1
1.1
4.3
3.1
Rwanda
52.6
7.8%
7.1%
×1.09
7.3%
$16bn
$1,124
1.1
2.0
2.2
1.0
3.0
5.0
2.3
3.3
4.1
Bulgaria
52.5
6.3%
3.9%
×1.35
4.5%
$131bn
$20,328
1.6
3.5
3.3
3.3
2.8
2.2
1.1
3.5
3.2
Jamaica
52.0
5.2%
2.7%
×1.38
3.3%
$23bn
$8,003
1.0
2.0
3.5
4.9
1.7
3.9
2.0
2.2
2.6
Republic of Congo
51.7
3.9%
0.3%
×1.60
1.1%
$16bn
$2,515
1.1
2.0
2.2
4.4
2.3
3.8
3.3
1.1
3.9
Algeria
51.6
5.5%
3.2%
×1.34
3.7%
$287bn
$6,051
1.0
2.0
3.0
3.0
4.9
3.2
2.5
2.1
1.3
Malta
51.5
7.6%
6.6%
×1.13
6.8%
$28bn
$47,907
1.0
3.5
3.6
4.4
1.5
1.2
2.6
3.2
3.6
Azerbaijan
50.8
4.7%
2.4%
×1.35
2.9%
$76bn
$7,411
1.1
2.0
3.3
1.9
1.8
2.8
4.2
3.6
2.2
Laos
50.6
6.9%
5.1%
×1.25
5.6%
$18bn
$2,325
1.1
2.0
2.1
1.1
3.6
3.7
4.2
1.6
2.9
Brunei
50.4
4%
1.7%
×1.35
2.2%
$15bn
$32,235
1.1
2.0
3.3
2.9
2.2
1.1
4.5
3.1
3.2
Pakistan
49.6
6%
4.3%
×1.24
4.7%
$407bn
$1,596
1.2
3.5
2.4
1.3
3.0
4.1
2.3
2.8
1.5
Tunisia
49.5
4%
1.9%
×1.31
2.4%
$58bn
$4,657
1.0
3.5
3.1
3.0
1.8
3.3
2.2
3.2
1.6
Ethiopia
49.4
7.5%
7.5%
×1.00
7.5%
$126bn
$933
1.0
2.0
1.8
1.1
4.1
4.6
3.4
2.4
1.7
Belize
49.4
5%
3.2%
×1.26
3.6%
$3.3bn
$7,865
1.0
2.0
2.2
3.1
1.3
3.5
4.8
2.3
2.8
Nicaragua
49.2
5.3%
3.5%
×1.25
4%
$22bn
$3,173
1.0
2.0
1.9
4.2
2.1
3.6
4.4
1.2
2.6
Zambia
49.2
5.8%
4.1%
×1.24
4.5%
$29bn
$1,318
1.1
2.0
1.3
2.0
2.6
4.6
3.5
2.8
3.4
Fiji
49.0
4.8%
3%
×1.25
3.5%
$6.2bn
$6,642
1.0
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.2
3.8
3.6
1.9
4.4
El Salvador
49.0
5.1%
3.3%
×1.25
3.8%
$37bn
$5,767
1.0
2.0
2.1
4.2
2.9
3.5
3.8
1.7
1.7
Ukraine
48.9
3%
0.4%
×1.41
1%
$214bn
$5,866
1.2
1.0
3.2
3.4
1.9
2.8
1.5
3.9
4.3
Montenegro
48.8
5.7%
4.1%
×1.23
4.5%
$9.2bn
$14,817
1.0
3.5
2.9
2.4
1.2
2.7
1.3
3.2
4.8
Uganda
48.8
6.9%
5.5%
×1.19
5.8%
$62bn
$1,206
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.4
3.3
4.9
3.1
2.1
2.9
North Macedonia
48.3
4.6%
2.9%
×1.24
3.3%
$19bn
$10,490
1.1
3.5
3.3
2.9
1.6
2.6
1.3
3.3
2.7
Papua New Guinea
48.3
5.1%
3.6%
×1.22
3.9%
$32bn
$3,020
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.1
2.7
4.3
3.6
2.0
4.3
Kosovo
48.3
6%
4.6%
×1.19
4.9%
$12bn
$7,899
1.0
2.0
3.1
1.3
1.9
3.2
2.4
2.4
4.0
Suriname
48.0
2.7%
0.3%
×1.37
0.9%
$4.5bn
$7,070
1.0
2.0
2.7
3.6
1.5
3.0
4.1
1.8
2.2
Guatemala
47.9
5.5%
4.1%
×1.19
4.4%
$123bn
$6,598
1.1
2.0
1.8
4.2
2.3
3.2
4.1
1.5
2.5
Georgia
47.9
6.8%
6.2%
×1.07
6.4%
$38bn
$9,692
1.1
2.0
2.8
2.1
2.3
2.8
1.4
3.4
4.5
Ghana
47.7
6.6%
5.4%
×1.16
5.7%
$114bn
$3,257
1.1
2.0
2.8
1.4
1.8
4.3
2.9
3.1
1.6
Equatorial Guinea
47.6
2.6%
-2%
×1.86
-1%
$13bn
$6,615
1.0
2.0
1.5
4.6
1.2
2.8
4.5
1.2
4.5
Malawi
47.5
4.8%
3.4%
×1.20
3.7%
$15bn
$672
1.0
2.0
1.3
1.2
2.7
5.0
3.7
2.3
2.5
Benin
47.3
6.6%
6.3%
×1.04
6.4%
$25bn
$1,658
1.0
2.0
1.4
2.7
3.4
4.7
2.6
2.6
1.9
Djibouti
47.2
6.6%
5.8%
×1.11
6%
$4.6bn
$3,906
1.1
2.0
1.6
3.7
1.8
4.0
4.9
1.4
1.4
Mozambique
47.1
4.6%
3.2%
×1.20
3.5%
$22bn
$627
1.1
2.0
1.7
3.2
1.7
4.9
2.6
1.9
2.8
Côte d'Ivoire
46.6
6.5%
6.1%
×1.05
6.2%
$100bn
$3,050
1.1
2.0
1.6
2.7
3.3
4.2
2.7
2.3
1.8
Macao
46.6
6.5%
5.4%
×1.14
5.7%
$52bn
$75,902
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.7
1.1
1.1
2.8
3.7
3.8
Namibia
46.6
3.1%
1.6%
×1.21
2%
$15bn
$4,876
1.0
2.0
2.5
2.2
1.1
4.0
2.7
1.9
3.5
Cambodia
46.5
6.5%
5.7%
×1.10
5.9%
$51bn
$2,872
1.1
1.0
2.0
1.0
4.4
4.1
2.9
1.7
2.0
Botswana
46.5
4.5%
3.2%
×1.17
3.5%
$20bn
$7,778
1.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.4
3.4
3.8
2.5
2.8
Nigeria
46.3
3.3%
2%
×1.19
2.3%
$291bn
$1,224
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.9
3.5
2.0
2.5
1.5
Gabon
46.3
3.7%
2.4%
×1.19
2.7%
$21bn
$8,263
1.1
2.0
2.2
3.5
1.4
2.5
3.3
1.6
4.2
Bosnia & Herzegovina
46.2
4.6%
3.4%
×1.16
3.7%
$33bn
$10,382
1.0
2.0
2.8
3.1
2.5
2.4
1.0
2.2
4.5
Tajikistan
46.2
7.6%
7.6%
×1.00
7.6%
$18bn
$1,637
1.0
2.0
1.6
1.7
2.2
4.3
3.4
1.3
3.3
Moldova
46.1
3.9%
2.6%
×1.18
2.9%
$20bn
$8,622
1.1
2.0
2.5
3.3
1.5
3.4
1.0
3.7
3.8
Maldives
45.8
6.3%
6.2%
×1.01
6.2%
$7.7bn
$14,615
1.0
2.0
2.7
1.3
2.3
2.3
4.0
1.7
2.7
Burundi
45.8
4.9%
3.8%
×1.14
4.1%
$3.4bn
$234
1.0
2.0
1.1
1.0
2.7
4.9
2.8
1.0
4.1
Lesotho
45.5
2.2%
0.9%
×1.19
1.2%
$2.6bn
$1,089
1.0
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.0
4.8
2.1
1.4
4.7
Barbados
45.3
3.3%
2.2%
×1.16
2.4%
$8bn
$28,365
1.0
2.0
1.9
4.9
2.7
3.3
2.0
2.1
2.1
Cameroon
45.1
4.7%
3.7%
×1.13
3.9%
$59bn
$1,972
1.1
2.0
1.9
2.4
1.4
4.2
3.2
1.8
2.5
Myanmar
44.9
2.2%
1.1%
×1.16
1.3%
$82bn
$1,489
1.1
1.0
1.6
1.1
3.7
3.8
3.5
2.0
2.3
Guinea
44.8
6.6%
6.6%
×1.00
6.6%
$28bn
$1,877
1.0
2.0
1.4
2.7
3.6
4.2
2.2
1.5
2.1
Angola
44.5
2.2%
1.1%
×1.15
1.4%
$122bn
$3,129
1.1
2.0
1.4
2.4
2.0
3.7
3.0
1.6
3.6
Mauritius
44.4
3.8%
2.9%
×1.12
3.1%
$16bn
$12,991
1.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.3
2.9
2.2
3.5
3.5
Armenia
44.3
6%
5.5%
×1.06
5.6%
$29bn
$9,474
1.1
2.0
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.6
1.6
2.3
3.8
Liberia
44.2
3.3%
2.4%
×1.12
2.6%
$5.2bn
$915
1.0
2.0
1.2
1.6
2.7
4.6
2.2
1.1
3.7
Togo
44.2
6%
5.4%
×1.08
5.5%
$12bn
$1,384
1.0
2.0
1.5
2.7
1.6
4.4
3.2
2.7
1.8
Haiti
43.7
1.4%
-0.4%
×1.26
0.1%
$32bn
$2,694
1.0
2.0
1.7
1.9
1.3
4.5
3.6
1.0
2.3
Solomon Islands
43.4
2.7%
1.9%
×1.11
2.1%
$1.7bn
$2,086
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.1
1.4
4.8
3.1
1.2
3.5
Sri Lanka
43.1
2.5%
1.7%
×1.11
1.9%
$109bn
$5,002
1.0
2.0
1.9
1.2
3.5
3.3
2.6
2.9
1.2
Madagascar
43.0
3.8%
3.2%
×1.08
3.3%
$20bn
$599
1.0
2.0
1.1
2.9
1.7
4.8
2.8
1.1
2.6
Gambia
42.7
5.6%
5.1%
×1.06
5.2%
$2.6bn
$919
1.0
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.1
4.8
3.1
1.8
1.6
Iraq
42.6
2.4%
1.7%
×1.10
1.9%
$254bn
$5,410
1.1
1.2
2.5
1.5
3.1
3.1
2.8
1.4
1.5
Trinidad & Tobago
42.0
0.9%
-1%
×1.29
-0.6%
$26bn
$18,967
1.1
2.0
2.0
4.9
1.4
2.3
2.4
2.0
2.5
Niger
41.8
5.9%
5.9%
×1.00
5.9%
$22bn
$775
1.0
2.0
1.1
2.7
2.4
4.8
2.7
1.3
1.2
Mali
41.5
4.7%
4.3%
×1.05
4.4%
$30bn
$1,193
1.0
2.0
1.5
2.7
2.1
4.4
2.6
1.1
1.3
Guyana
41.0
4.9%
4.6%
×1.04
4.7%
$27bn
$32,414
1.0
2.0
2.4
3.1
2.7
1.0
2.2
1.9
3.0
Burkina Faso
40.8
5.2%
4.9%
×1.04
5%
$28bn
$1,148
1.1
2.0
1.3
2.7
1.6
4.7
2.4
1.7
1.3
Chad
40.3
2.8%
2.5%
×1.04
2.6%
$21bn
$1,022
1.0
2.0
1.2
3.7
1.3
4.5
2.5
1.3
1.5
Timor-Leste
40.3
2.4%
2.1%
×1.04
2.2%
$1.9bn
$1,341
1.0
2.0
1.1
1.8
1.0
4.5
3.0
1.2
2.8
Zimbabwe
40.0
2.9%
2.7%
×1.03
2.7%
$51bn
$3,021
1.0
2.0
1.7
2.6
1.0
3.9
2.7
1.4
1.9
Mauritania
39.4
4.2%
4.1%
×1.02
4.1%
$12bn
$2,198
1.0
2.0
1.2
2.9
1.9
3.9
2.9
1.3
1.2
Sierra Leone
38.1
4.3%
4.3%
×1.00
4.3%
$7.5bn
$846
1.0
2.0
1.2
1.6
1.2
4.3
2.1
1.6
2.4
Eswatini
38.0
2.5%
2.5%
×1.00
2.5%
$5.2bn
$4,108
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.1
3.4
1.8
2.1
2.1
Two growth columns. “Post-AGI” is the rate the Gradual scenario reaches from 2040; “Growth 2035” is the modeled rate in 2035. Pick another year in the lens bar to compare the scenarios at one date. Levels, not rates: “×2045” is GDP in 2045 relative to the no-AI path and “Avg 25–45” the average growth rate over 2025–2045 with the ramp included — the level view Moll and Imas (2026) recommend, and the only columns comparable across scenarios at one date.
Countries without a modeled result: the atlas includes 157 economies with sufficiently complete, internationally comparable data. It omits North Korea, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Venezuela, Cuba, Libya, Turkmenistan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan and, for now, Lebanon because the required series are unavailable or unusable. Conflict, sanctions, limited international reporting, hyperinflation or crisis-related breaks explain the missing data. Many of these countries would probably meet the rules for the High-risk / volatile archetype, but they are not scored. Their absence means that the model lacks a result, not that they have no exposure to AI.
Special jurisdiction profiles (outside the rankings):