Bahamas
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
High-income, skilled economies with strong AI adoption, including large aging economies whose diffusion scores offset weaker demographics.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Several parts of the economy could transmit AI’s effects. The pace depends on adoption by firms, connectivity and movement of workers between sectors.
This country is not covered by the Global Automation Atlas’s public country file; its task-level exposure work for other countries is at automationatlas.org.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where the Bahamas starts
The Bahamas enters the AGI era as one of the smallest and richest members of the high-trust diffusers — wealthy, skilled economies quick to absorb new tools. At about $39,455 per person, it is firmly high-income, and its English fluency scores 4.9 out of 5, among the highest anywhere; even a leader must keep moving under AGI. Its capacity to put AI to work scores 3.3, and its workforce and migration position 3.8. Tourism and offshore finance are the economy. The constraints are physical. Compute and energy access scores 1, near the floor: the Bahamas has almost no data center capacity and runs on costly imported fuel. Physical build speed is 1.9 and geopolitical positioning 2. Ten-year trend growth of 2% a year reflects a service economy with little of its own to build.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline; the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. The Bahamas would gain a slight lift to 2.2% growth a year, 110th of 157, as cheaper software reaches its banks, resorts and ministries. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would climb over two decades and reach 7.2% a year once AGI matures around 2045, ranking 95th. An economy at that rate doubles in about ten years. The lift would arrive indirectly, as richer client countries buy more tourism and financial services. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 7.9% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling in roughly nine years, and the rank would rise to 88th — seven places above its Modest standing. A wealthy, English-speaking population absorbs AI services fast, even without building them. Regulation and politics could slow or redirect any of these paths. How Bahamians and their government respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The three scenarios look almost identical until about 2030. So watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live rather than trust any snapshot. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world; a point or two above trend by the mid-2030s a gradual one; a fade back to trend a modest one. The Bahamas' own signals would arrive earlier than GDP data: tourist arrivals and hotel bookings from the United States, new business at its offshore financial centre, and adoption of the Sand Dollar, its central bank digital currency.
If growth goes explosive
Explosive is relative. At 7.2 to 7.9% growth a year, the Bahamas would run well ahead of its Caribbean neighbours, whose median stays near 3 to 5% under the AGI scenarios. But it would fall far behind the frontier, where the United States would compound at nearly 20% under gradual takeoff and close to 40% under fast. This is catch-up against the region, not a place at the front. An economy doubling every nine or ten years would roughly quadruple within a generation. The gains would come mostly as cheaper imported services and busier resorts, not owned capability. Higher wages at home would ease the pressure on young Bahamians to seek work abroad. The honest downside: the Bahamas would rent its intelligence rather than own it, dependent on alliance access and other powers' chips. Cloud capacity financed and priced abroad can be throttled or repriced by decisions made elsewhere. The hedge is to secure guaranteed access through trusted partners and keep sensitive data at home. Even a services boom would test the state — a fragile power grid, hurricane recovery capacity, and a financial regulator watched closely by foreign counterparts.
What the Bahamas can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and two pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first no-regret lever is geopolitical positioning, at 2. Staying aligned with chip-supplying partners, avoiding sanctions exposure and protecting access to capital markets matters for a finance-based economy in any world. The second no-regret lever is physical build speed, at 1.9. Statutory permitting deadlines and pre-zoned land would speed hurricane reconstruction and grid upgrades regardless of AI, and they are the same reforms any data center build would need. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1, barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under a fast takeoff it becomes the Bahamas' single biggest lever. Closing it means fixing the grid, adding cleaner generation and packaging power and land for investment. A 0.4-million-person economy cannot fund this alone, so it needs co-investment from trusted partners. Singapore offers a model to adapt: its 2024 Green Data Centre Roadmap reopened managed, sustainable capacity growth after a moratorium. A cautious government can act on the two no-regret levers today and lose nothing. Open the atlas's policy editor to see how moving these scores reshapes each path.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Bahamas’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Bahamas: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.