Bosnia & Herzegovina
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
Firms moved factory and office work here for its labor cost: assembly lines, garments, call centers and IT services sold abroad. AI and robots can increasingly do that work.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Several parts of the economy could transmit AI’s effects. The pace depends on adoption by firms, connectivity and movement of workers between sectors.
This country is not covered by the Global Automation Atlas’s public country file; its task-level exposure work for other countries is at automationatlas.org.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Bosnia & Herzegovina starts
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a stalled-middle economy: middling income, middling scores, slow growth. Its factor profile shows why. Most scores cluster near the middle — AI diffusion capacity 2.7, physical build speed 2.6, language inclusion 2.8. Two sink far lower. Compute and energy access is 1, the floor, because the country has almost no data center capacity. Demographics and migration is also 1, marked by heavy emigration to the EU and an aging population. Its one clear strength is climate and environmental resilience at 4.5, backed by abundant water and hydropower on the Drina and Neretva. Manufacturing makes up roughly 73% of exports, much of it metals and automotive parts sold into Europe. At about $10,380 GDP per person, this is a middle-income country. Ten-year trend growth of 3.1% a year captures the drift the archetype warns about.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline, and the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Bosnia would hold near trend at 3.2% growth a year, 68th of 157. That is its best world rank, because slow global takeoff keeps the field bunched. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would rise over two decades and reach 5.1% a year once AGI matures around 2045, doubling the economy in about 14 years. Yet its rank would fall to 129th. Faster-moving peers pull away, so a higher growth rate buys a lower place. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 6.4% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling every 11 years or so, ranking 102nd. The gains would arrive imported and late, as the archetype predicts. Regulation and politics could slow or redirect any path. How Bosnians and their governments respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost identical until about 2030. Watch leading indicators, not GDP, and watch them live. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world. A point or two above trend by the mid-2030s would signal a gradual one. A fade back to trend would signal a modest one. Bosnia's own signals would arrive earlier than the growth data: EU accession steps that open funds and markets, any hosting commitment on Bosnian soil, and the order books of the automotive and metals exporters tied to German and Austrian supply chains.
If growth goes explosive
For Bosnia, explosive is the wrong word. Even under Fast takeoff, 6.4% growth a year is modest by world standards. The frontier would compound at nearly 40% a year and the European median at over 16%, so Bosnia would fall further behind both. Its rank slips 27 places from the Modest world. The economy would still double in about 11 years, faster than its own history, so a child born today would reach a country roughly twice as rich by adulthood. Rising wages could slow the exodus of workers to Germany and Austria, easing the emigration that has hollowed out the labor force. There is an honest downside. Bosnia's deepest exposure is people: an aging population and decades of brain drain mean the workers who could absorb AI keep leaving. If growth stays middling while richer neighbors surge, the pull abroad only strengthens. The hedge is to make staying worthwhile through skills, wages and services that hold talent at home. Even then, the real test is the state. Bosnia's layered Dayton structure — two entities, ten cantons and Brčko district — would have to permit, procure and coordinate faster than it ever has.
What Bosnia & Herzegovina can do now
Three levers follow from the weakest high-weight scores, and two pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first is AI diffusion capacity, at 2.7. Digital skills, permissive deployment rules and digitized government carry real weight even in the skeptic's world, so building them is a no-regret move. The second is demographics and migration, the floor at 1. Raising labor force participation among women and older workers, and investing in human capital, strengthens the economy under every scenario and answers the brain drain directly. Both are safe to start today at no loss if the skeptics are right. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1, barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under fast takeoff it becomes Bosnia's largest lever. Closing it means packaging hydropower, land and faster permits to attract data center investment. Lithuania shows one path: it turned light-touch rules and a fintech sandbox into a fast-growing digital sector. Open the atlas's policy editor to test how lifting each score reshapes Bosnia's path across the three scenarios.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Bosnia & Herzegovina’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Bosnia & Herzegovina: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.