Chile
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
These economies supply copper, fuels, bauxite, iron ore, uranium and other inputs required for the build-out.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Production and exports are resource-led. Direct workplace exposure may be limited, while global demand, commodity prices, extraction productivity and ownership of the resulting capital still transmit AI’s effects.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Chile starts
Chile enters the AGI era as a resource supplier — one of the countries that sells the build-out its raw inputs. For Chile that input is copper, which makes up over half of its exports. The archetype usually means thin institutions and little else. Chile is the exception. Its scores stand out among resource suppliers: physical build speed 4.5, climate and environmental resilience 4.6, AI diffusion capacity 4.1, language inclusion 4.3. It leads Latin America on institutions and already hosts real compute, including Google's data center at Quilicura. Its Atacama solar and wind resources are among the world's best. Two gaps stand out. Compute and energy access scores 2, geopolitical positioning also 2, because Chile sits outside the blocs that ration chips. At about $17,995 per person, it is upper-middle-income. Ten-year trend growth is 2% a year.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline; the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Chile would gain a small lift on trend: 2.4% growth a year, 98th of 157. Copper demand would firm, but the rents would look much as they do today. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would build for two decades and reach 14% a year once AGI matures around 2045. That would rank Chile 19th in the world. An economy growing at 14% doubles in a little over five years. The slow ramp gives Chile time to turn copper, clean power and strong institutions into hosted computing and higher-value exports. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 20.8% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling every three to four years. Yet Chile's rank would slip to 26th, because a fast world rewards the compute and chip access Chile does not hold. Demand for its copper, though, would be immense. Regulation and politics could slow or redirect any of these paths. How Chileans and their government respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look nearly identical until about 2030. In all three, the late 2020s add only fractions of a point to growth. So watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live rather than trust any snapshot. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world; a point or two above trend by the mid-2030s, a gradual one; a fade back to trend, a modest one. Chile's own signals would arrive sooner: copper order books and long-term supply contracts from chipmakers and data center builders, hyperscaler commitments beyond Quilicura, and financial close on grid and transmission projects.
If growth goes explosive
Explosive is relative. At 14% growth a year under Gradual, Chile would run far ahead of its region, whose median growth would be about 8%, but well behind a frontier compounding near 20%. Under Fast, 20.8% would still trail a frontier near 39%. By its own 2% history, either path is transformative. At 14%, the economy doubles in a little over five years; a child starting school would finish it in a country more than twice as rich. Copper revenue could become a genuine fiscal engine, and rising wages would draw workers rather than send them abroad, easing regional migration pressure. Here is the honest risk. A commodity boom is not a development strategy. If the copper rents are spent rather than converted into owned compute, skills and infrastructure, they evaporate when the cycle turns, and Chile hosts little of the intelligence its metal helped build. The hedge is to bank and reinvest the windfall while it lasts. Even then, the pace-setter shifts from the mine to the state: environmental permitting through the SEIA system, the grid operator's connection queue, and the courts would all be tested on speed.
What Chile can do now
Three levers follow from the scores. The first is catch-up headroom, at 3. Strong institutions, open trade and the ability to absorb new technology pay off whether or not AGI arrives, so deepening them is a no-regret move. Chile already leads its region here; the task is to protect that lead, not assume it is safe. A cautious government can act on this today and lose nothing if the skeptics are right. The second lever is geopolitical positioning, at 2. Keeping access to capital markets and deepening trusted-partner frameworks is sensible now, and becomes decisive if chips are rationed by bloc. The third is the bet: compute and energy access, also at 2. It barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under fast takeoff it is Chile's single biggest lever. Closing it means packaging Atacama power, land and fast permits to anchor hyperscale investment, and clearing the grid connection queue. Chile can adapt a peer's playbook: Colombia used competitive renewable-energy auctions to contract gigawatts of new solar and wind at low prices. To see how moving these scores changes Chile's path under each scenario, open the atlas's policy editor.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Chile’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Chile: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.