Colombia
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
These economies supply copper, fuels, bauxite, iron ore, uranium and other inputs required for the build-out.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Production and exports are resource-led. Direct workplace exposure may be limited, while global demand, commodity prices, extraction productivity and ownership of the resulting capital still transmit AI’s effects.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Colombia starts
Colombia enters the AGI era as a resource supplier — one of the group that sells the build-out its raw inputs. Half its exports are fuels: oil through Ecopetrol, coal from Cerrejón. But two scores set Colombia apart from its peers. Demographics and migration is 4.6 out of 5, well above the resource-supplier median of 3.3; language inclusion is 3.9. A young, Spanish-speaking workforce of 53 million is an asset most commodity exporters lack. Physical build speed of 3.7 and geopolitical positioning of 3.5 add to the base. The binding constraint is compute and energy access, at 1.7. Colombia has almost no data center capacity, and its grid leans heavily on hydropower exposed to drought. Ten-year trend growth of 2.5% a year, at about $8,600 per person, marks a middle-income economy that has not yet converted its endowments into capacity.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline; the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Colombia would gain a small lift on trend: 2.8% growth a year, 83rd of 157, with its resource exports carrying the economy much as they do now. At that pace the economy takes about 25 years to double. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would build for two decades and reach 12.1% a year once AGI matures around 2045, placing Colombia 36th in the world. The long runway gives it time to turn commodity rents, a young workforce and permissive deployment into real capacity. An economy growing at 12.1% doubles in about six years. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 16.8% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling every four to five years. But Colombia's rank would slip six places to 42nd, because a fast world rewards the compute and energy access Colombia does not yet hold. Regulation and politics could slow or redirect any of these paths. How Colombians and their government respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost identical until about 2030, so watch leading indicators, not GDP, and watch them live. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world; a point or two above trend by the mid-2030s a gradual one; a fade back to trend a modest one. Colombia's own signals would arrive earlier than the growth figures: hyperscaler hosting commitments on Colombian soil, financial close on new generation and transmission, and the order books for its oil and coal exports.
If growth goes explosive
Explosive is relative. At 12.1% growth a year, Colombia would still trail the frontier, because the United States would compound far faster. But it would run well ahead of the Latin American median of 8.1% and far ahead of its own history. The economy would double roughly every six years, so a child starting school now would finish it in a country several times richer. As the global build-out lifts demand for energy and metals, Colombia's export prices could rise — terms of trade means the prices it earns for exports against the prices it pays for imports. The workforce is young and Spanish-speaking, so gains would spread through services, not just extraction, and higher wages would ease the pressure on Colombians to emigrate for work. There is a way this leaves Colombia worse off. A commodity boom is not a development strategy; rents evaporate if they are not converted into skills, grid and owned capacity. The hedge is to bank and reinvest the windfall, not spend it. Even then, the pace-setter would shift to the state, testing how fast ANLA can license, how communities are consulted, and how quickly courts and transmission builders can move.
What Colombia can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and two pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first is AI diffusion capacity, already a relative strength at 3.2. Digital skills, permissive deployment rules and digitized public services carry weight even in the skeptic's world, so protecting and extending them is a no-regret move. The second is physical build speed, at 3.7. Statutory permitting deadlines and pre-zoned energy land protect growth under every scenario and prepare the ground for any data center build. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1.7, barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under fast takeoff it becomes Colombia's single biggest lever. Closing it means firming the hydro-heavy grid with new generation and storage, then packaging power and land to attract investment. Colombia can adapt a working model from its own region: Chile launched a national data center plan to court hyperscalers around its firm, low-carbon grid. Open the atlas's policy editor to test how lifting these scores reshapes Colombia's path under each scenario.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Colombia’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Colombia: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.