Côte d'Ivoire
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
Most workers farm small plots, and exports are mainly crops.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
A large share of the workforce remains in agriculture and informal activity. This provides some initial insulation from cognitive automation but also limits the speed at which existing workplaces can capture productivity gains.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Côte d'Ivoire starts
Côte d'Ivoire is a reform climber: a lower-middle-income economy growing fast from a low base, with institutions that keep improving. The scores explain the label. Catch-up headroom is 4.2 out of 5, among the highest anywhere, because so much productivity gain is still available. Physical build speed is 3.4, well above the regional median. The strengths are real: the ports of Abidjan and San Pédro, the world's largest cocoa crop, and gas-fired plants like Azito and Ciprel that let the country export power to its neighbors. Ten-year trend growth is 6% a year. The binding constraints are digital. Compute and energy access scores 1.1, and AI diffusion capacity 1.7. At roughly $3,050 per person, the capital to close those gaps is scarce.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline, and the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Côte d'Ivoire would grow at 6.1% growth a year and rank 10th of 157. That high rank is not a mistake. In a world where the frontier barely moves, the country's catch-up headroom makes it one of the fastest growers on the map. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would climb over two decades and reach 7.6% a year around 2045, ranking 87th. An economy at that rate doubles in under ten years. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 7.5% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling roughly every nine to ten years, but the rank would slip to 93rd. The paradox is real: faster growth, lower rank, because a fast world rewards the compute and capital that race ahead elsewhere. Politics could slow or redirect any path. How Ivorians and their leaders respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost identical until about 2030. So watch leading indicators, not GDP, and watch them live. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world. A point or two above trend by the mid-2030s would signal a gradual one. A fade back to trend would signal a modest one. Côte d'Ivoire's own signals would arrive earlier than the growth data: investment in local cocoa and cashew processing rather than raw export, any hosting commitment on Ivorian soil, power export contracts with neighbors, and the order books at Abidjan and San Pédro.
If growth goes explosive
For Côte d'Ivoire, explosive is the wrong word. At 7.5% to 7.6% growth a year, its AGI paths sit only modestly above its 6% trend, and far behind a frontier that could compound near 39% in a fast world. But those rates still beat the regional median and its own recent history. The economy would double in under ten years, so a child starting school now would finish it in a country twice as rich. Growth of that kind would raise wages and labor demand. That eases the pressure to emigrate and keeps drawing workers from across West Africa, as the cocoa farms already do. There is an honest downside. Côte d'Ivoire would consume AI it rents, not compute it owns, and sit as a rule-taker inside another power's chip regime. Capacity financed and licensed abroad can be repriced or restricted by decisions made elsewhere. The hedge is to negotiate durable access and own a share of the capacity. Either way, the pace-setter would move to the state. The energy planner CI-ENERGIES, the ports, the land registry and the courts would have to permit, connect and adjudicate faster than they do today.
What Côte d'Ivoire can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and two pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first is AI diffusion, weak at 1.7. Digital skills, deployment-friendly rules and digitized government services carry weight even in the skeptic's world, so building them is a no-regret move a cautious government can start today. The second is geopolitical positioning, at 2. Keeping access to capital markets, avoiding sanctions exposure and aligning with trusted-partner frameworks protects the economy under every scenario, and costs little to pursue now. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1.1, is the country's highest-weighted factor but barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary. Under a fast takeoff it becomes decisive. Closing it means packaging power, land and fast permits, and drawing co-investment a $3,050-per-person economy cannot raise alone. Senegal offers a model from the same archetype: it built a national data center at Diamniadio to host government data at home. To see how moving these scores changes Côte d'Ivoire's path under each scenario, open the atlas's policy editor.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Côte d'Ivoire’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Côte d'Ivoire: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.