Mauritius
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
They earn from what cannot be sent down a wire: visitors who come, and workers abroad who send money home.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Several parts of the economy could transmit AI’s effects. The pace depends on adoption by firms, connectivity and movement of workers between sectors.
This country is not covered by the Global Automation Atlas’s public country file; its task-level exposure work for other countries is at automationatlas.org.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Mauritius starts
Mauritius enters the AGI era as a stalled middle: middling income, middling scores, slow growth. At around $12,991 per person it is one of Africa's richest economies, built on financial services, tourism, sugar and textiles. Its strengths sit in soft infrastructure. Cyber resilience scores 3.5 out of 5, fitting for an offshore financial center, and climate and environmental resilience also 3.5. The Ebène CyberCity, undersea cables and a respected regulatory record give it real digital footing. The binding constraints are physical. Compute and energy access scores 1.1, near the bottom, and physical build speed 1.3. A small island of 1.24 million people has little room and little power to host large data centers. Ten-year trend growth of 2.6% a year reflects an economy that has run through its old catch-up engine.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline; the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Mauritius would edge just above trend: 2.7% growth a year, 86th of 157. Its financial and tourism base would carry on much as today. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would climb over two decades and reach 4.4% a year once AGI matures around 2045. Yet its rank would fall to 134th, because faster economies pull away. An economy growing at 4.4% doubles in about 16 years. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 4.8% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling in under 15 years, and its rank would recover a little to 128th. The lesson is drift: even with a lift, Mauritius slips down a table that others climb faster. Politics could slow or redirect any of these paths. How Mauritians and their government respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost the same until about 2030. In all three, the late 2020s add only fractions of a point to growth. So watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live rather than trust any snapshot. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world; a point or two above trend by the mid-2030s a gradual one; a fade back to trend a modest one. Mauritius's own signals would arrive earlier than the growth data: AI adoption inside its banks and insurers, new hosting or cable commitments landing on the island, and the deal flow through the Economic Development Board.
If growth goes explosive
For Mauritius, explosive is the wrong word. At 4.4 to 4.8% growth a year, its path is modest by world standards and would even trail the Sub-Saharan African median. The frontier would compound at 19.5 to 39.2% a year, so the gap to the leaders would widen, not close. That is the stalled middle's core risk: relative decline while others race ahead. Still, 4.8% would run above its recent history, and an economy at that rate doubles in under 15 years. Financial services and tourism would deepen, and higher wages at home would ease the pressure on skilled Mauritians to emigrate. Here is the honest downside. A small island cannot build frontier compute; it would rent it from abroad, and rented capacity can be repriced or throttled by decisions made elsewhere. The hedge is to lock in long contracts and diversify suppliers. Even a modest lift would test the state: the Bank of Mauritius, the Financial Services Commission and the courts would have to supervise, license and adjudicate an AI-heavy financial sector at speed.
What Mauritius can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and one pays off whether or not AGI arrives. Start with the no-regret move: AI diffusion, at 2.3. Digital skills, deployment-friendly rules and digitized government services raise productivity in the skeptic's world too, and Mauritius already has the cyber base at 3.5 to build on — that strength is worth protecting, not just a gap to close. The second lever is physical build speed, at 1.3. Statutory time limits on permits and pre-zoned land and power would help under every scenario, and are the groundwork any data center bid needs. The third is the bet: compute and energy access, at 1.1 and the heaviest-weighted factor. It barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under a fast takeoff it becomes Mauritius's single biggest lever. A 1.24-million economy cannot fund it alone, so the play is to package power, land and fast permits and court co-investment. Thailand shows the model: its Board of Investment used tax incentives to draw multi-billion-dollar hyperscaler data center commitments from Amazon and Google. To see how moving these scores changes Mauritius's path under each scenario, open the atlas's policy editor.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Mauritius’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Mauritius: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.