Mozambique
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
These economies supply copper, fuels, bauxite, iron ore, uranium and other inputs required for the build-out.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Production and exports are resource-led. Direct workplace exposure may be limited, while global demand, commodity prices, extraction productivity and ownership of the resulting capital still transmit AI’s effects.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Mozambique starts
Mozambique is one of the framework's conditional demographic giants — countries whose scale and young population become an asset only if power, connectivity and capital arrive in time. Its catch-up headroom scores 5 out of 5, the top of the scale: no country on the map has more distance to close, though even that lead must be worked under AGI. Its strengths are physical. Cahora Bassa is one of Africa's largest dams. The gas discoveries off Cabo Delgado are among the world's biggest. The Mozal aluminium smelter and the Maputo and Nacala corridors move real volume. The binding constraint is compute and energy access, scored 1.1, nearly the lowest anywhere despite the hydropower. At about $627 per person, Mozambique is among the lowest-income countries here. Ten-year trend growth of 3.4% a year reflects an economy still short of grid, capital and skills.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline; the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Mozambique would gain a small lift on trend: 3.5% growth a year, 60th of 157. At that pace the economy doubles in about twenty years. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would climb over two decades and reach 5.7% a year once AGI matures around 2045. That doubles the economy in roughly twelve to thirteen years. Yet Mozambique's rank would fall to 118th, because a gradual world rewards the compute, capital and geopolitical weight it lacks, and faster economies pull ahead. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 4.9% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling in about fourteen to fifteen years. Its rank would slip further, to 124th. This is the region's hard lesson: more speed in the world can mean a lower place in it. Regulation and politics could slow or redirect any path. How Mozambicans and their leaders respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost the same until about 2030. Watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would point to a fast world. A point or two above trend by the mid-2030s would point to a gradual one. A fade back to trend would point to a modest one. Mozambique's own signals would arrive earlier than GDP: a final go-ahead and financial close on the Cabo Delgado LNG projects, security holding in the north, new fibre landings and grid links, and hosting or connectivity commitments on Mozambican soil.
If growth goes explosive
For Mozambique, explosive is the wrong word. Even at its best, 5.7% growth a year is modest by world standards, and it sits right at the regional median. The frontier would compound near 20% in the same gradual scenario, and near 40% in a fast one. This is catch-up against Mozambique's own history, not a leap up the world table. At 5.7% the economy doubles in about twelve to thirteen years; a child born today would reach her teens in a country twice as rich. Gas, power and aluminium would still anchor exports. A young, growing workforce meeting stronger labor demand and rising wages at home would feel less pressure to emigrate for work. The honest downside is dependence. If Mozambique only rents computing power owned abroad, the terms can be repriced or cut by decisions made elsewhere, and its best engineers can be drawn to higher wages overseas. The hedge is to own capacity and train people to run it. Either way the pace-setter shifts to the state: to the electricity utility EDM, to permitting offices, courts and revenue collection, and to holding security in Cabo Delgado.
What Mozambique can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and two pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first is AI diffusion capacity, low at 1.7. Digital skills, permissive deployment rules and digitizing government services carry weight even in the skeptic's world, so this is a no-regret move. The second is physical build speed, also 1.7. Time limits on permits, one-stop approvals, pre-zoned industrial land and transmission built ahead of demand raise growth under every scenario, so it too is no-regret. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1.1, barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under a fast takeoff it becomes Mozambique's biggest lever. Its energy floor — extending the grid from Cahora Bassa — is worth doing regardless; the hyperscale compute on top is the gamble. Mozambique can adapt a model from its region: Kenya is pairing clean geothermal power with a new data center built with Microsoft and G42. Cahora Bassa could anchor the same kind of deal. A cautious government can act on the two no-regret levers today and lose nothing if the skeptics are right. Open the atlas's policy editor to see how shifting these scores bends Mozambique's path under each scenario.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Mozambique’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Mozambique: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.