Paraguay
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
Their exports are food, gold, diamonds, logistics or a small share of output, which AI neither threatens nor much boosts, so AI reaches them mainly through their own firms and governments.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Production is relatively manufacturing-intensive. Near-term effects depend on machinery, robotics, supply chains, energy and firms’ capacity to reorganize production, as well as on language models.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Paraguay starts
Paraguay enters the AGI era as a stalled middle economy: middling income, middling scores, slow growth, neither frontier nor fragile. Its strengths are human and linguistic. Demographics and migration score 4 out of 5, a young population still growing. Language inclusion is 3.9, helped by widespread Spanish and Guaraní. Physical build speed is a fair 3.1. The binding constraint sits in one number: Compute and Energy Access at 1.1. That looks odd for a country that co-owns Itaipú, one of the world's largest hydroelectric dams, and Yacyretá besides. Paraguay has power in abundance but sells much of it abroad and hosts almost no computing. At about $7,000 per person, it is lower-middle-income. Ten-year trend growth of 2.7% a year reflects soy and beef more than machines.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline; the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Paraguay would gain a little on trend: 2.9% growth a year, 80th of 157. Farming and hydropower exports would carry the economy much as they do now. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would climb across two decades and reach 7.5% a year once AGI matures around 2045, ranking 89th. That is below the Latin American median, a sign of drift: gains arrive, but slowly, and faster economies pull away. An economy growing at 7.5% doubles in under ten years. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 9.2% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling every eight years, and Paraguay's rank would rise to 79th. A fast world rewards its cheap clean power and young workers more than a gradual one does. Politics could slow or redirect any of these paths. How Paraguayans and their government respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost identical until about 2030. The late 2020s add only fractions of a point to growth. So watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would point to a fast world. A point or two above trend by the mid-2030s would point to a gradual one. A fade back to trend would point to a modest one. Paraguay's own signals would come sooner: hyperscaler interest in its hydropower, the terms of the renegotiated Itaipú treaty with Brazil, and whether the Bitcoin miners drawn by cheap electricity give way to higher-value computing.
If growth goes explosive
Explosive is relative. At 7.5 to 9.2% growth a year, Paraguay would run far ahead of its own history, yet it would trail the frontier, where the United States could compound at 19.5% in a gradual world and near 39% in a fast one. Even at its best, Paraguay would sit at the Latin American median, not above it. The economy would double every eight to ten years, so a child born now could reach adulthood in a country several times richer. Farming would shrink as a share of output while power, services and hosting grow. Wages would rise, easing the pressure that sends young Paraguayans to Argentina and Spain for work. There is a way this leaves Paraguay worse off. If it merely sells cheap electricity to data centers owned and controlled abroad, it captures the power bill and little else. The hedge is to host and own computing at home, not just export the electrons. Even then, the pace-setter would shift to the state, testing whether ANDE, the tax authority and the courts can permit, connect and adjudicate at speed.
What Paraguay can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and two of them pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first is AI diffusion capacity, at 2.6. Digital skills, permissive deployment rules and digitized government services carry weight even in the skeptic's world, so building them is a no-regret move a cautious government can start today. The second is geopolitical positioning, at 2. Staying inside trusted-partner frameworks and keeping open access to capital markets protects the economy under every scenario, and it too is largely no-regret. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1.1, barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under fast takeoff it becomes Paraguay's single biggest lever. Here Paraguay holds a rare card: abundant clean hydropower most rivals lack. Closing the gap means packaging that power, land and fast permits to attract data center investment, rather than exporting the electricity raw. Brazil, a fellow stalled-middle economy, is pairing its market with hyperscaler cloud regions and a national AI plan; Paraguay could match its power to the same demand. Open the atlas's policy editor to test how moving each score reshapes Paraguay's path.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Paraguay’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Paraguay: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.