Ukraine
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
Military governments, very weak state capacity, or limited access to the AI supply chain keep these countries from converting AI into growth.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Several parts of the economy could transmit AI’s effects. The pace depends on adoption by firms, connectivity and movement of workers between sectors.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Ukraine starts
Ukraine enters the AGI era as a high-risk, volatile economy: a country the model expects to be left behind under every scenario, because war and sanctions exposure sit between it and the AI supply chain. The scores split sharply. Cyber resilience is 3.9, hardened by years of defending networks under Russian attack. AI diffusion capacity is 3.1, built on a large IT services sector and the Diia digital-government platform. Climate resilience is 4.3. Against these stand the constraints of a war economy. Geopolitical positioning scores 1, the lowest band. Compute and energy access is 1.3, with the grid under sustained bombardment. Demographics score 1.5 after mass displacement. At about $5,866 per person, Ukraine is lower-middle-income, and ten-year trend growth of -1.9% a year reflects an economy at war.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline, and the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Ukraine would keep contracting slightly: -1.8% growth a year, 155th of 157. The war economy sets the ceiling, and AI adds almost nothing. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would climb over two decades and reach 3.7% a year once AGI matures around 2045, lifting Ukraine to 138th. An economy growing at 3.7% doubles in about nineteen years. The long ramp gives its IT and defense tech firms time to sell into a richer world. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach 4.4% a year from the early 2030s, a doubling roughly every sixteen years, and Ukraine would rise five places to 133rd. Even here the rates stay modest, because a fast world rewards the compute and alliance access Ukraine does not hold. Reconstruction, EU accession and the course of the war would shape any of these paths far more than the model can capture. How Ukrainians and their government respond to transformative AI is a variable the model holds constant.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost the same until about 2030. Watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live rather than trust any snapshot. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world; a point or two above trend by the mid-2030s, a gradual one; a fade back to trend, a modest one. Ukraine's own signals would arrive sooner: foreign contracts for its drone and defense tech firms, IT-export order books, reconstruction financing that clears, and whether the grid is rebuilt faster than it is hit.
If growth goes explosive
Explosive is the wrong word here. At 3.7% to 4.4% growth a year, Ukraine's paths are modest by world standards. The United States would be compounding many times faster, near 39% in a fast world, while Ukraine's region runs at about 16%. This is recovery from war, not a boom. Still, an economy doubling every sixteen years would roughly quadruple the wealth of a child born today by her thirties. Rising wages and labor demand at home could ease the pressure to emigrate, and draw some of the displaced back. Neither would cause the growth; both would follow it. The honest downside is demographic and geopolitical. Ukraine has lost millions of working-age people, and it enters this era compute-starved and outside any chip bloc, so it would rent capability rather than own it. The hedge is alliance and EU inclusion plus rebuilding its own power supply. Either way the test shifts to the state: reconstruction agencies, permitting offices, anti-corruption bodies and courts must move faster than ever.
What Ukraine can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and two pay off whether or not AGI arrives. The first is physical build speed, at 1.7. Reconstruction needs faster permitting, pre-zoned land and transmission built ahead of demand regardless of AI, so this is a no-regret move. Statutory approval deadlines and one-stop permits would speed the rebuild and any future data center site alike. The second is geopolitical positioning, the weakest score at 1. Deeper EU accession and alliance inclusion — staying inside the trusted-partner frameworks that govern chip access — protects capital markets and technology supply under every scenario, another no-regret step. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1.3, barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary, but under a fast takeoff it becomes Ukraine's largest lever. That means rebuilding generation, including nuclear, and packaging power and land to attract investors. DR Congo follows the same energy-first logic with its Grand Inga hydropower project, turning a natural endowment into power capacity Ukraine could adapt. A cautious government can act on the two no-regret levers today and lose nothing. Open the atlas's policy editor to see how each score reshapes Ukraine's path under each scenario.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Ukraine’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Ukraine: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.