AGI Growth Atlas
Global growth · to 2060
Lens
Gradual: Broad automation and transformative growth · AGI ~2040
Growth as of

Regions · Gradual lens

The world to 2060, region by region

Eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under the Gradual scenario. Click a region for its page: the 2060 outlook, the distribution of its countries, their factor profile, the country table and the regional GDP path. Changing the scenario recalculates everything.

Regions compared

Bars: each region’s GDP-weighted growth under Gradual. The thin ticks show the same regions under the other two lenses; hover any bar or tick for the value. Click a region to open its page.

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%North America2 countries · $33.1T14.9%East Asia7 countries · $27.2T13.1%Oceania5 countries · $2.1T12.3%South Asia6 countries · $5.0T10.8%Europe39 countries · $27.3T10.5%Southeast Asia11 countries · $4.3T10.2%MENA14 countries · $5.8T9.3%Latin America20 countries · $6.9T8.3%Eurasia8 countries · $3.2T7.1%Sub-Saharan Africa40 countries · $2.1T5.7%Caribbean5 countries · $105B3.0%
Gradual · GDP-weighted growth rates from 2040 Modest · peak rates, 2035 Fast · rates from 2030hover for values · click a region to open it

14.9% growth from 2040 · rank 1
2 countries · pop 384m · GDP $33.1T · 2045 GDP ×2.93 vs no-AI

Frontier capability concentrated in the United States

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 204014.9%GDP-weightedUnited StatesCanada
North America rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, North America’s 2 countries grow from 2040 at between 14.2% (Canada) and 14.9% (United States) a year. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 14.9% from 2040, rank 1 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 2.9 times what it would be without AI.

13.1% growth from 2040 · rank 2
7 countries · pop 1617m · GDP $27.2T · 2045 GDP ×2.07 vs no-AI

Frontier competition and critical supply chain capacity

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 204013.1%GDP-weightedChinaMacaoHong KongMongoliaTaiwanJapanSouth Korea
East Asia rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, East Asia’s 7 countries grow from 2040 at between 6.5% (Macao) and 13.9% (China) a year; the middle half of them sit between 6.8% and 11.3%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 13.1% from 2040, rank 2 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 2.1 times what it would be without AI.

12.3% growth from 2040 · rank 3
5 countries · pop 46m · GDP $2.1T · 2045 GDP ×2.40 vs no-AI

Strong adoption in Australia and New Zealand; lower readiness in Pacific island states

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 204012.3%GDP-weightedAustraliaSolomon IslandsFijiPapua New GuineaNew Zealand
Oceania rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, Oceania’s 5 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.7% (Solomon Islands) and 12.5% (Australia) a year; the middle half of them sit between 4.8% and 12.3%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 12.3% from 2040, rank 3 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 2.4 times what it would be without AI.

10.8% growth from 2040 · rank 4
6 countries · pop 1948m · GDP $5.0T · 2045 GDP ×1.59 vs no-AI

India dominates a region exposed through services and labor-intensive exports

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 204010.8%GDP-weightedIndiaSri LankaPakistanMaldivesNepalBangladesh
South Asia rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, South Asia’s 6 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.5% (Sri Lanka) and 11.8% (India) a year; the middle half of them sit between 6% and 7.7%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 10.8% from 2040, rank 4 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 59% larger than what it would be without AI.

10.5% growth from 2040 · rank 5
39 countries · pop 592m · GDP $27.3T · 2045 GDP ×2.19 vs no-AI

High adoption with limited frontier capability

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 204010.5%GDP-weightedIrelandUkraineKosovoLithuaniaCzech RepublicAustriaGermany
Europe rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, Europe’s 39 countries grow from 2040 at between 3% (Ukraine) and 12.8% (United Kingdom) a year; the middle half of them sit between 6.9% and 10.5%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 10.5% from 2040, rank 5 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 2.2 times what it would be without AI.

10.2% growth from 2040 · rank 6
11 countries · pop 702m · GDP $4.3T · 2045 GDP ×1.72 vs no-AI

A major location for data center and manufacturing expansion

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 204010.2%GDP-weightedMalaysiaMyanmarBruneiCambodiaThailandPhilippinesVietnam
Southeast Asia rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, Southeast Asia’s 11 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.2% (Myanmar) and 12.3% (Malaysia) a year; the middle half of them sit between 4% and 10.4%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 10.2% from 2040, rank 6 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 72% larger than what it would be without AI.

9.3% growth from 2040 · rank 7
14 countries · pop 434m · GDP $5.8T · 2045 GDP ×1.72 vs no-AI

Gulf capital is financing rapid expansion of compute

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 20409.3%GDP-weightedUnited Arab EmiratesIraqKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaMorocco
MENA rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, MENA’s 14 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.4% (Iraq) and 10.9% (United Arab Emirates) a year; the middle half of them sit between 5.5% and 10.1%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 9.3% from 2040, rank 7 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 72% larger than what it would be without AI.

8.3% growth from 2040 · rank 8
20 countries · pop 608m · GDP $6.9T · 2045 GDP ×1.80 vs no-AI

Middle-range scores and limited integration with the main AI blocs

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 20408.3%GDP-weightedChileSurinameEl SalvadorGuatemalaCosta RicaPanamaPeru
Latin America rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, Latin America’s 20 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.7% (Suriname) and 10.9% (Chile) a year; the middle half of them sit between 5.3% and 8%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 8.3% from 2040, rank 8 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 80% larger than what it would be without AI.

7.1% growth from 2040 · rank 9
8 countries · pop 237m · GDP $3.2T · 2045 GDP ×1.49 vs no-AI

Restricted Russian access and multi-alignment in Central Asia

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 20407.1%GDP-weightedUzbekistanAzerbaijanArmeniaGeorgiaTajikistanKyrgyzstan
Eurasia rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, Eurasia’s 8 countries grow from 2040 at between 4.7% (Azerbaijan) and 8.7% (Uzbekistan) a year; the middle half of them sit between 6% and 7.7%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 7.1% from 2040, rank 9 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 49% larger than what it would be without AI.

5.7% growth from 2040 · rank 10
40 countries · pop 1229m · GDP $2.1T · 2045 GDP ×1.22 vs no-AI

Lower complement scores and greater sensitivity to the speed of takeoff

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 20405.7%GDP-weightedKenyaLesothoNigeriaMauritaniaBurundiCôte d'IvoireEthiopia
Sub-Saharan Africa rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 40 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.2% (Angola) and 8.6% (Kenya) a year; the middle half of them sit between 3.7% and 6.6%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 5.7% from 2040, rank 10 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 22% larger than what it would be without AI.

3.0% growth from 2040 · rank 11
5 countries · pop 17m · GDP $105B · 2045 GDP ×1.32 vs no-AI

Small, open economies with high service exposure

0%5%10%15%20%Gradualrates from 20403%GDP-weightedBahamasTrinidad & TobagoHaitiBarbadosJamaica
Caribbean rest of the world region, GDP-weighted averagenames: a sample across the distribution; hover any dot world median country

Under Gradual, the Caribbean’s 5 countries grow from 2040 at between 0.9% (Trinidad & Tobago) and 6% (Bahamas) a year; the middle half of them sit between 1.4% and 5.2%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 3% from 2040, rank 11 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 32% larger than what it would be without AI.