· Caribbean · Gradual lens
Caribbean
Small, open economies with high service exposure. 5 countries, 17 million people and $105B of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
Caribbean economies are generally small, open and service-led. Tourism and offshore finance matter in the Bahamas and Barbados, gas and petrochemicals in Trinidad and Tobago, and services and diaspora links in Jamaica. English proficiency and functioning institutions support adoption. If AGI raises incomes in rich countries, tourism demand will also increase. Small scale limits the scope for domestic infrastructure ownership, while hurricanes and climate change create additional exposure. Much of the benefit would arrive through less expensive imported services rather than locally owned capability. Haiti falls in the High-risk / volatile archetype, with state fragility shaping its outlook more than technology. For most of the region, the modeled path is steady adoption of imported tools and services with limited influence over their supply.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, the Caribbean’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Language Inclusion (4.3 vs 3.0) · Catch-up Headroom (3.3 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Physical Build Speed (1.8 vs 3.0) · Cyber Resilience (1.9 vs 3.0).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.
Reform permitting: statutory shot clocks, one-stop approvals, limits on litigation delay.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahamas | 53.5#78 | 2.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% |
| Jamaica | 52.0#89 | 1.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| Barbados | 45.3#132 | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| Haiti | 43.7#141 | -1.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Trinidad & Tobago | 42.0#147 | -1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
Caribbean to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: the Caribbean in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and the Caribbean’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
Caribbean among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.