· East Asia · Gradual lens
East Asia
Frontier competition and critical supply chain capacity. 7 countries, 1617 million people and $27.2T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
China is the only country outside the United States operating a complete frontier AI stack. It holds about 7% of tracked training compute, probably an underestimate, together with domestic model laboratories and rapid expansion of power and data center capacity. Export controls limit its chip supply. Its response has included efficiency improvements and open-weight releases close to the frontier, making China an alternative source of models for many countries. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan supply critical equipment, materials, memory and fabrication. Their importance also concentrates risk, particularly in Taiwan. All three populations are aging; the projections used here place Japan’s population at about 100 million in 2060, down from 123 million. AI therefore arrives as a substitute for workers these economies will increasingly lack. The regional outlook depends on whether supply chains remain open and whether China’s constrained development path converges with or falls behind the US frontier.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, East Asia’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: AI Diffusion Capacity (4.1 vs 3.0) · Compute & Energy Access (2.6 vs 1.6).
Weakest: Catch-up Headroom (2.0 vs 3.0) · Demographics & Migration (2.2 vs 3.0).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Skilled-migration and talent-attraction visas.
Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 76.2#3 | 6.0% | 13.9% | 25.6% |
| South Korea | 71.7#8 | 2.7% | 12.1% | 22.2% |
| Japan | 70.8#12 | 0.9% | 11.3% | 21.9% |
| Taiwan | 65.5#27 | 4.3% | 10.6% | 17.7% |
| Mongolia | 53.2#80 | 4.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Hong Kong | 57.6#55 | 1.5% | 6.8% | 11.2% |
| Macao | 46.6#120 | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
East Asia to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: East Asia in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and East Asia’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
East Asia among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.