· Eurasia · Gradual lens
Eurasia
Restricted Russian access and multi-alignment in Central Asia. 8 countries, 237 million people and $3.2T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
Russia has engineers and energy, but also a shrinking population and, because of sanctions, limited access to frontier chips and Western capital. Its path depends on Chinese hardware and domestic adaptation of open-weight models, providing partial technological autonomy while remaining behind the frontier. Central Asian countries pursue a different strategy. Kazakhstan combines energy with sovereign-AI ambitions and relationships with Washington, Beijing and Moscow. Uzbekistan is reforming rapidly and has the region’s youngest population base. The Caucasus states are smaller and constrained by geography. Countries that neither develop nor freely purchase frontier compute are likely to use systems supplied by their strongest partner, linking technology access to broader economic alignment. Eurasia’s results therefore depend heavily on who supplies its compute.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, Eurasia’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Climate & Environmental Resilience (3.4 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Language Inclusion (2.2 vs 3.0) · Geopolitical Positioning (1.9 vs 2.6).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.
Strengthen access through chip-supplying blocs and trusted-partner frameworks.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | 56.5#62 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% |
| Kyrgyzstan | 54.4#70 | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| Kazakhstan | 56.1#67 | 3.7% | 7.7% | 10.7% |
| Tajikistan | 46.2#127 | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% |
| Russia | 57.2#57 | 2.1% | 7.0% | 10.6% |
| Georgia | 47.9#112 | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% |
| Armenia | 44.3#138 | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% |
| Azerbaijan | 50.8#93 | 1.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
Eurasia to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: Eurasia in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and Eurasia’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
Eurasia among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.