· Europe · Gradual lens
Europe
High adoption with limited frontier capability. 39 countries, 592 million people and $27.3T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
Europe contains the largest cluster of High-trust diffusers, with strong institutions, skills and measured adoption. It has much less frontier capability. The continent hosts about 8% of tracked training compute, approximately one-tenth of the US share, and none of the leading laboratories. Access therefore depends on continued inclusion in the US alliance system and on open-weight models remaining available close to the frontier. Neither condition is guaranteed over twenty years. Building sovereign European capability faces high energy prices, slow permitting and aging workforces. The United Kingdom and Ireland lead in adoption; Central Europe has substantial manufacturing capacity; the Balkans and Moldova have weaker institutions; and Ukraine remains a war economy. Few European elites, pension systems or public finances are levered to AI paying off, while rightsholders, professional bodies and unions remain well organized; that weakens the coalition for deployment. Europe’s main exposure is the difference between adopting frontier AI and owning the capability that supplies it.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, Europe’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Cyber Resilience (4.2 vs 3.0) · Climate & Environmental Resilience (4.1 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Demographics & Migration (1.9 vs 3.0) · Catch-up Headroom (2.0 vs 3.0).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Skilled-migration and talent-attraction visas.
Reform permitting: statutory shot clocks, one-stop approvals, limits on litigation delay.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 74.3#4 | 1.8% | 12.8% | 21.5% |
| Ireland | 72.5#6 | 4.7% | 12.8% | 20.9% |
| Sweden | 71.1#10 | 1.9% | 11.6% | 19.9% |
| Netherlands | 70.3#13 | 2.3% | 11.5% | 19.4% |
| Switzerland | 69.8#16 | 2.3% | 11.3% | 20.0% |
| Germany | 70.3#14 | 1.2% | 11.2% | 21.0% |
| Norway | 69.8#15 | 2.0% | 11.2% | 18.7% |
| Finland | 69.5#17 | 1.3% | 10.9% | 19.1% |
| France | 68.7#18 | 1.5% | 10.7% | 20.1% |
| Iceland | 67.3#23 | 3.2% | 10.7% | 15.3% |
| Denmark | 67.3#22 | 2.6% | 10.5% | 17.4% |
| Belgium | 66.6#24 | 1.9% | 10.0% | 17.4% |
| Poland | 64.0#33 | 3.9% | 10.0% | 16.2% |
| Austria | 66.2#26 | 1.5% | 9.8% | 16.7% |
| Spain | 64.4#32 | 2.4% | 9.5% | 16.7% |
| Romania | 60.8#46 | 3.3% | 8.8% | 14.7% |
| Italy | 63.5#36 | 1.4% | 8.7% | 16.6% |
| Luxembourg | 62.7#40 | 2.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% |
| Hungary | 61.3#45 | 2.8% | 8.7% | 13.5% |
| Czech Republic | 61.7#42 | 2.3% | 8.5% | 13.9% |
| Estonia | 60.7#47 | 2.1% | 8.1% | 11.7% |
| Portugal | 59.7#50 | 2.6% | 8.0% | 13.0% |
| Cyprus | 53.1#82 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| Croatia | 56.4#63 | 3.7% | 7.8% | 11.3% |
| Malta | 51.5#92 | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% |
| Lithuania | 56.2#64 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| Slovakia | 58.1#54 | 2.2% | 7.4% | 10.6% |
| Slovenia | 56.6#61 | 3.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% |
| Serbia | 54.2#72 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 9.7% |
| Albania | 53.1#81 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% |
| Latvia | 56.9#59 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 9.5% |
| Bulgaria | 52.5#88 | 3.0% | 6.3% | 9.4% |
| Kosovo | 48.3#109 | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% |
| Montenegro | 48.8#105 | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| Greece | 52.6#86 | 1.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% |
| North Macedonia | 48.3#107 | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 46.2#126 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% |
| Moldova | 46.1#128 | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% |
| Ukraine | 48.9#104 | -0.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
Europe to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: Europe in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and Europe’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
Europe among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.