· Latin America · Gradual lens
Latin America
Middle-range scores and limited integration with the main AI blocs. 20 countries, 608 million people and $6.9T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
Latin America has middle-range scores on most factors and generally sits outside the blocs that govern frontier access. Chile leads on institutions and hosts meaningful compute. Brazil and Mexico combine hyperscaler regions and large domestic markets with relatively limited research and development. Uruguay and Costa Rica show strong adoption at smaller scale, while Guyana is using oil revenue to finance the hemisphere’s fastest construction expansion. Nearshoring is a central exposure: manufacturing and services moved to Mexico and Central America partly because of labor costs, and those activities are among the first that automation would reprice. Distance from US–China competition reduces some export-control exposure but also limits strategic investment. Under Modest, the region remains close to its existing path. Under Fast, most gains arrive through imported technology and later than at the frontier, so the gap widens over time.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, Latin America’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Language Inclusion (3.9 vs 3.0) · Demographics & Migration (3.8 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Cyber Resilience (2.5 vs 3.0) · Geopolitical Positioning (2.2 vs 2.6).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.
Strengthen access through chip-supplying blocs and trusted-partner frameworks.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 68.6#19 | 2.5% | 10.9% | 16.3% |
| Colombia | 63.1#38 | 2.8% | 9.2% | 12.8% |
| Brazil | 63.9#35 | 1.8% | 9.1% | 14.8% |
| Peru | 62.1#41 | 2.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% |
| Dominican Republic | 57.6#56 | 4.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% |
| Ecuador | 60.6#48 | 1.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% |
| Panama | 55.0#69 | 4.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% |
| Argentina | 61.4#44 | 0.7% | 7.6% | 10.6% |
| Mexico | 60.2#49 | 1.4% | 7.6% | 11.7% |
| Costa Rica | 52.9#84 | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% |
| Honduras | 53.5#77 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% |
| Paraguay | 53.0#83 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Bolivia | 54.1#73 | 1.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Uruguay | 53.6#75 | 1.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% |
| Guatemala | 47.9#111 | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Nicaragua | 49.2#100 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% |
| El Salvador | 49.0#103 | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% |
| Belize | 49.4#99 | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| Guyana | 41.0#150 | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Suriname | 48.0#110 | -0.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
Latin America to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: Latin America in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and Latin America’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
Latin America among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.