· MENA · Gradual lens
MENA
Gulf capital is financing rapid expansion of compute. 14 countries, 434 million people and $5.8T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
The Gulf states are using sovereign capital and hydrocarbon revenue to acquire a larger role in the AI economy. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have secured government-to-government agreements on chip access and announced infrastructure far larger than their current economic scale. Microsoft data for 2026 gives the UAE the world’s highest measured AI adoption, at about 73% of the working-age population. Access nevertheless depends on agreements that can change with US policy. Physical constraints are also substantial: more than 180 days a year above 35°C increase cooling requirements, while water is scarce. Israel supplies frontier research and development. Morocco combines steady construction with a cooler Atlantic climate and aims to supply energy to Europe. Egypt has a large population but lower complement scores, and Iraq combines oil wealth with the region’s weakest institutions. The Gulf model will be tested by whether purchased compute develops into domestic capability or remains dependent on continuing external access.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, MENA’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Demographics & Migration (4.1 vs 3.0) · Physical Build Speed (3.8 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Climate & Environmental Resilience (1.4 vs 3.0) · Language Inclusion (2.2 vs 3.0).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Invest in adaptation: water, cooling, resilient infrastructure, flood defense.
Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Arab Emirates | 68.4#20 | 2.5% | 10.9% | 18.1% |
| Turkey | 64.9#30 | 5.0% | 10.7% | 15.5% |
| Morocco | 66.5#25 | 3.0% | 10.4% | 14.7% |
| Israel | 64.9#29 | 3.9% | 10.3% | 15.4% |
| Saudi Arabia | 65.2#28 | 3.3% | 10.1% | 16.2% |
| Qatar | 62.8#39 | 1.6% | 8.6% | 14.3% |
| Jordan | 61.6#43 | 2.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
| Egypt | 55.6#68 | 4.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% |
| Bahrain | 58.3#52 | 3.0% | 7.9% | 11.9% |
| Oman | 56.7#60 | 2.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
| Algeria | 51.6#91 | 2.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% |
| Kuwait | 52.7#85 | 0.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Tunisia | 49.5#97 | 1.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Iraq | 42.6#146 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% |
MENA to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: MENA in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and MENA’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
MENA among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.