· North America · Gradual lens
North America
Frontier capability concentrated in the United States. 2 countries, 384 million people and $33.1T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
The United States begins the AGI period with roughly 80% of tracked frontier training compute, the leading laboratories and the deepest capital markets. It ranks first under every scenario. Its main constraints are physical and domestic: grid connections, permitting and transmission determine how much frontier capacity can be built in the country. Over the next twenty years, growth in power demand is likely to exceed the historical rate of grid expansion, increasing the role of gigawatt campuses, on-site generation and, later in the period, new nuclear capacity. Canada shares the market, alliance relationships and language. It also has energy, land and minerals required for construction, but little frontier capacity of its own, leaving its modeled ceiling below that of the United States. Under any AGI scenario, North America has substantial influence over the standards and access arrangements used elsewhere.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, North America’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Compute & Energy Access (4.1 vs 1.6) · Language Inclusion (4.9 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Catch-up Headroom (1.5 vs 3.0).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Reform permitting: statutory shot clocks, one-stop approvals, limits on litigation delay.
Skilled-migration and talent-attraction visas.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 79.8#1 | 2.9% | 14.9% | 29.9% |
| Canada | 77.9#2 | 2.5% | 14.2% | 24.4% |
North America to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: North America in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and North America’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
North America among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.