· Oceania · Gradual lens
Oceania
Strong adoption in Australia and New Zealand; lower readiness in Pacific island states. 5 countries, 46 million people and $2.1T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.
The 2060 outlook
Australia and New Zealand combine high trust with high measured AI adoption and participate in the alliance system governing frontier access. Both were Tier 1 countries in the 2025 US diffusion framework and have little reason to expect exclusion. Australia also has energy, land, a cool southern climate for hosting infrastructure and minerals used in AI hardware. Its permitting system will affect whether it becomes a major construction location or remains primarily a user of imported capability. Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands have weaker state capacity and connectivity; Papua New Guinea’s gas and mineral exports place it among the Resource suppliers. In those countries, AI is more likely to arrive through mobile networks, remittances and aid than through data centers. The region therefore contains countries at both ends of the atlas’s readiness distribution.
Where the region falls
Every country in the world on one growth axis, Oceania’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.
Factor profile
The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).
Strengths, gaps and levers
Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.
Strongest: Climate & Environmental Resilience (3.8 vs 3.0) · Demographics & Migration (3.7 vs 3.0).
Weakest: Cyber Resilience (2.6 vs 3.0) · AI Diffusion Capacity (2.7 vs 3.0).
Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).
Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.
Reform permitting: statutory shot clocks, one-stop approvals, limits on litigation delay.
These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .
The countries
Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.
| Country | Index · rank | Modest | Gradual ▾ | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 73.1#5 | 2.7% | 12.5% | 21.4% |
| New Zealand | 72.5#7 | 2.6% | 12.3% | 19.1% |
| Papua New Guinea | 48.3#108 | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| Fiji | 49.0#102 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% |
| Solomon Islands | 43.4#142 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
Oceania to 2060, against the other regions
GDP per person under Gradual: Oceania in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and Oceania’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.
Oceania among the regions
All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.