AGI Growth Atlas
Global growth · to 2060
Lens
Gradual: Broad automation and transformative growth · AGI ~2040
Growth as of

· South Asia · Gradual lens

South Asia

India dominates a region exposed through services and labor-intensive exports. 6 countries, 1948 million people and $5.0T of GDP in 2025, seen through the Gradual scenario.

Growth · from 2040
10.8%
GDP-weighted · rank 4 of 11
Average index
52.9
world average 54.9
GDP 2045 vs no-AI
×1.59
sum of the country paths
Best positioned
India
11.8% a year · 3 of 6 above the world median (6.9%)

The 2060 outlook

India begins the period with the world’s second-largest online workforce, English at scale, some frontier compute and a large services-export sector. That sector demonstrates India’s capacity to absorb technology but is also exposed because remote cognitive work is among the first activities AGI would automate. Under Gradual, India records some of the world’s largest absolute gains. Under Fast, its result depends on whether a decade provides enough time to move from back-office services into technology production. India’s participation in the Quad and its US technology relationships have so far provided access without a formal alliance commitment. Bangladesh’s garment-led growth model depends on continued demand for labor-intensive imports and is therefore exposed to automation. Pakistan has favorable demographics but lower complement scores. Sri Lanka and Nepal receive smaller gains, while the Maldives depends heavily on imports. India’s scale means that its path accounts for much of the region’s aggregate outcome.

Where the region falls

Every country in the world on one growth axis, South Asia’s in color with its GDP-weighted average marked, one row per scenario (post-AGI rates; for Modest, the peak). Hover a dot for the country; click to open it.

-5%5%15%25%Modestpeak rates, 20356 countries · rank 1/115.9%GDP-weightedGradualrates from 20406 countries · rank 4/1110.8%GDP-weightedFastrates from 20306 countries · rank 5/1115.8%GDP-weighted
South Asia rest of the world region, GDP-weighted average world median country
Reading the numbers. Under Gradual, South Asia’s 6 countries grow from 2040 at between 2.5% (Sri Lanka) and 11.8% (India) a year; the middle half of them sit between 6% and 7.7%. Weighted by GDP, the region grows 10.8% from 2040, rank 4 of 11, and its 2045 economy is 59% larger than what it would be without AI. Under Fast, 1 of its countries would grow more slowly than they would without AGI. The most common archetype is Tourism and diaspora economies, with 2 of its 6 countries. For comparison, from 2040: United States at 14.9%, China at 13.9%, Malaysia (upper middle-income) at 12.3%; South Asia’s GDP-weighted 10.8% trails all of them.

Factor profile

The region’s average score on the nine complements against the world average (1–5).

ComputeGeopoliticsDiffusionLanguageBuildCatch-upDemographicsCyberClimate
South AsiaWorld average

Strengths, gaps and levers

Relative to the world average, and weighted by how much the Gradual lens counts each factor.

Strongest: Physical Build Speed (3.7 vs 3.0) · Catch-up Headroom (3.7 vs 3.0).

Weakest: Language Inclusion (1.4 vs 3.0) · Climate & Environmental Resilience (2.0 vs 3.0).

Compute & Energy Accessscore 1.5 · weight 15%

Fast-track grid interconnection and new generation (incl. nuclear, gas, renewables + storage).

AI Diffusion Capacityscore 2.5 · weight 20%

Invest in digital skills and AI literacy across the workforce.

Climate & Environmental Resiliencescore 2.0 · weight 9%

Invest in adaptation: water, cooling, resilient infrastructure, flood defense.

These are the three factors, among those a government can move, where a higher regional score would lift the index most under Gradual, ranked by (5 − score) × weight. Catch-up headroom and language coverage are left out as structural. Test the effect for any country in the .

The countries

Ranked by growth under Gradual (click Modest, Gradual or Fast to rank by that scenario; for Modest, its 2035 peak), GDP in 2045 against the no-AI path, and the pre-AI trend. Click a column to re-sort, a country for its profile and brief.

CountryArchetypeIncome groupIndex · rankModestGradual ▾Fast×2045Trend
IndiaRegional leadersLower middle68.3#216.2%11.8%17.9%×1.665.9%
BangladeshOffshoring destinationsLower middle56.1#666.2%8.6%9.7%×1.256.0%
NepalTourism and diaspora economiesLower middle54.3#714.4%7.7%7.7%×1.364.2%
MaldivesTourism and diaspora economiesUpper middle45.8#1296.3%6.3%4.6%×1.016.2%
PakistanSheltered economiesLower middle49.6#963.7%6.0%6.7%×1.243.6%
Sri LankaSheltered economiesUpper middle43.1#1431.4%2.5%3.4%×1.111.4%

South Asia to 2060, against the other regions

GDP per person under Gradual: South Asia in color, the other ten regions in gray (hover to name them), and South Asia’s no-AI path dashed. Log scale, so a constant growth rate is a straight line and the change at the AGI year is visible. Transitional paths, not steady-state forecasts: compare timing and gaps rather than the 2060 levels.

$1k$10k$100k$1.0M$10.0M20252030203520402045205020552060AGI 2040
North AmericaEast AsiaOceaniaEuropeSoutheast AsiaMENALatin AmericaEurasiaSub-Saharan AfricaCaribbeanSouth Asia · Gradualdashed = no AI

South Asia among the regions

All eleven regions ranked by GDP-weighted growth from 2040 under Gradual, with the other two lenses as ticks. Click another region to open it.

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%North America2 countries · $33.1T14.9%East Asia7 countries · $27.2T13.1%Oceania5 countries · $2.1T12.3%South Asia6 countries · $5.0T10.8%Europe39 countries · $27.3T10.5%Southeast Asia11 countries · $4.3T10.2%MENA14 countries · $5.8T9.3%Latin America20 countries · $6.9T8.3%Eurasia8 countries · $3.2T7.1%Sub-Saharan Africa40 countries · $2.1T5.7%Caribbean5 countries · $105B3.0%
Gradual · GDP-weighted growth rates from 2040 Modest · peak rates, 2035 Fast · rates from 2030hover for values · click a region to open it