Haiti
GDP per capita to 2060, by scenario
Constant-rate scenario path; the 2060 endpoint levels are illustrative, not forecasts.
Factor profile
Military governments, very weak state capacity, or limited access to the AI supply chain keep these countries from converting AI into growth.
How this economy meets AI
Today’s production, workforce and automation baseline — context for the scenarios, outside the AGI Growth Index.
Where output comes from (% of GDP)
Where people work (% of employment)
Informal employment
Current automation exposure
Production is relatively manufacturing-intensive. Near-term effects depend on machinery, robotics, supply chains, energy and firms’ capacity to reorganize production, as well as on language models.
Sources: World Bank WDI; ILOSTAT; Global Automation Atlas (Garg, Crosta & Baier, 2026). The latest available year is shown for each measure; vintages differ, so shares may not sum to 100.
Where Haiti starts
Haiti enters the AGI era in the high-risk, volatile tier: cut off from the AI supply chain, with a state too fragile to turn new technology into growth. The scores show why. Compute and energy access and cyber resilience both sit at 1 out of 5, the floor. Physical build speed is 1.2, and AI diffusion capacity 1.7. The one high score, catch-up headroom at 4.5, only measures how far behind Haiti starts. A young population (demographics 3.6) and wide French and Creole use (language 3.5) are real, but they rest on little else. Ten-year trend growth is minus 0.7% a year; the economy has been shrinking. At about $2,694 per person, Haiti is lower-income. Caracol Industrial Park still stitches apparel for the United States, but Électricité d'Haïti delivers little reliable power. As the regional picture says, state fragility rather than technology will decide the next twenty years.
The three paths
These are simulations, not forecasts. The Modest path is the baseline, and the two AGI scenarios fork from it. Under the Modest scenario, AI stays a normal technology. Haiti's economy would keep contracting slightly: minus 0.6% growth a year, 152nd of 157. Under Gradual takeoff, growth would build over two decades and reach 2.4% a year once AGI matures around 2045, ranking 153rd. That is barely above the region's own path, because Haiti has almost none of the inputs — power, chips, capital, builders — that turn machine intelligence into output. Under Fast takeoff, growth would reach only 1.4% a year from the early 2030s, and Haiti would fall to 157th, last in the sample. A fast world rewards compute and build speed, and Haiti holds neither, so it gains least where others gain most. Even then, 1.4% stays above the shrinking trend. Regulation and politics could slow or redirect any path, depending on how Haitians and their leaders respond to transformative AI — a variable the model holds constant, and one that here means whether the state stabilizes at all.
How you would know which world you are in
The scenarios look almost identical until about 2030, so watch leading indicators, not GDP, and check them live rather than trust any snapshot. Three global signals matter most. First, whether the METR task horizon curve keeps doubling every four to five months through 2027–28; METR publishes it at metr.org. Second, whether frontier lab revenue and capital spending keep compounding; Epoch AI tracks both at epoch.ai. Third, whether growth in the ten to twenty most-ready economies — the United States and China above all — breaks above trend in the early 2030s. Double-digit growth there within a couple of years of 2030 would signal a fast world; a point or two above trend by the mid-2030s, a gradual one; a fade back to trend, a modest one. Haiti's own tells would arrive earlier than any growth figure: the security situation in Port-au-Prince, whether Caracol's order books hold, and whether electricity generation and port customs become dependable.
If growth goes explosive
For Haiti, explosive is the wrong word. Its rates stay modest under every scenario. At 2.4% growth a year in the Gradual world, Haiti would fall further behind a frontier compounding at 19.5%, and it would trail the Caribbean median of 3.1%. The Fast world is starker: 1.4% growth against a frontier near 39% and a regional median of 4.7%. This is relative decline, not catch-up, though it stays above today's shrinking trend. On the ground the change would be small: a little more output, some digital services reaching a young workforce, and, if wages rose, slightly less pressure on Haitians to emigrate — growth would ease that pressure, not the reverse. The honest downside is exclusion. A country with compute access at 1 rents whatever intelligence it uses and owns none of it, so the terms are set abroad and its most skilled people keep leaving. The hedge is to keep talent and build basic connectivity at home. The real stress test comes first: restoring security in Port-au-Prince, making Électricité d'Haïti deliver power, and running the ports and customs a modern economy needs.
What Haiti can do now
Three levers follow from the scores, and the order matters. The two no-regret moves pay off whether or not AGI arrives. First is AI diffusion capacity, at 1.7: basic digital skills and digitizing government services would raise productivity in the skeptic's world too. Second is physical build speed, at 1.2: clearer permitting, pre-zoned land and more skilled construction labor help any economy. A cautious government can start on both today and lose nothing if the skeptics are right. The third lever is the bet. Compute and energy access, at 1, carries the most weight under Fast but barely moves growth if AI stays ordinary. Closing it means reliable power first, then land-and-power packages to draw investment — hard for a $32bn economy to fund alone. Haiti can borrow a model from an archetype peer: Ukraine built Diia, a single app that puts government services and documents online, even under severe strain. Open the atlas's policy editor to test how lifting each score reshapes Haiti's path.
Use the policy editor to test how different factor scores change Haiti’s modeled path. The roadmap builder below can then incorporate those targets into a 1,000-day planning prompt.
Drafted with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, from the atlas’s data and an editorial template set by the author.
Create a 1000-day AGI and growth roadmap prompt
This prompt can be used with Claude, ChatGPT or an open-weight model hosted on your institution’s systems. It includes the atlas material for Haiti: the country brief, economic structure, region, archetype and global scenarios. It instructs the model to ask for local information, use existing strategies and the political calendar, and preserve the atlas’s interpretation rules. The prompt is assembled in your browser; the information entered here is not sent elsewhere.
1 · Read the brief → 2 · Set targets in the policy editor → 3 · Generate and copy the prompt → 4 · Run it with an approved model, with high reasoning effort and web access where permitted
Instructions are generated in the selected language; the data annex remains in English. Translations are machine-drafted, and corrections from native speakers are welcome through the contact links on the start page.